试论中国经济转型与社会稳定

我国处在社会经济转型与持续调整增长阶段，社会非稳定因素与日俱增，社会经济转型给整个社会带来进步与繁荣，也给社会带来冲突与动荡，但是，中国的社会经济顺利转型又必须在长期稳定的社会环境中才能进行，因此，保持政治稳定，社会安定是实现社会经济转型的前提。     

含有非线性电阻的动态电路唯一稳态的范数判定方法

以矩阵范数为工具，得到了确定含有非线性电阻的动态电路唯一稳态的条件，并给出了一个算例，其结果与理论分析吻合．本文的结果表明，含有非线性电阻的动态电路的唯一稳态．可以用矩阵范数决定．而且这个方法可以应用于任意阶的非线性电路．判据适用范围更广，结果便于应用，在理论与实用两个方面，都有重要意义．     

1885-1945年缅甸闽籍华侨的社会结构

早期缅甸闽侨以年轻男子居多,由于华侨社会内部性别比失衡,他们大多与当地人通婚.1885年后缅甸全境沦为英国殖民地,仰曼铁路向北延伸,缅甸闽侨的地域结构特征逐渐由"二元"转为"一体".同期,缅甸闽侨大多经商为生,并创立了各类社团组织.1930年后英属缅甸社会动荡不安,但远离当地政治的闽侨所受影响较小.第一代闽侨总体文化水平不高,但大多以自身中华文化特征为荣.     

Predicting the adoption of connected autonomous vehicles: A new approach based on the theory of diffusion of innovations

On the grounds that individuals heavily rely on the information that they receive from their peers when evaluating adoption of a radical innovation, this paper proposes a new approach to forecast long-term adoption of connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs). The concept of resistance is employed to explain why individuals typically tend to defer the adoption of an innovation. We assume that there exists a social network among individuals through which they communicate based on certain frequencies. In addition, individuals can be subject to media advertisement based on certain frequencies. An individual’s perceptions are dynamic and change over time as the individual is exposed to advertisement and communicates with satisfied and dissatisfied adopters. We also explicitly allow willingness-to-pay (WTP) to change as a result of peer-to-peer communication. An individual decides to adopt when (i) there is a need for a new vehicles; (ii) his/her WTP is greater than CAV price; and (iii) his/her overall impression about CAVs reaches a cutoff value. Applicability of the proposed approach is shown using a survey of employees of the University of Memphis. Our results show that the automobile fleet will be near homogenous in about 2050 only if CAV prices decrease at an annual rate of 15% or 20%. We find that a 6-month pre-introduction marketing campaign may have no significant impact on adoption trend. Marketing is shown to ignite CAV diffusion but its effect is capped. CAV market share will be close to 100% only if all adopters are satisfied with their purchases; therefore, the probability that an individual becomes a satisfied adopter plays an important role in the trend of adoption. The effect of the latter probability is more pronounced as time goes by and is also more prominent when CAV price reduces at greater rates. Some caveats may be inserted when considering the study results as the findings are subject to sample bias and data limitations.     

Potentials of using social media to infer the longitudinal travel behavior: A sequential model-based clustering method

This study explores the possibility of employing social media data to infer the longitudinal travel behavior. The geo-tagged social media data show some unique features including location-aggregated features, distance-separated features, and Gaussian distributed features. Compared to conventional household travel survey, social media data is less expensive, easier to obtain and the most importantly can monitor the individual’s longitudinal travel behavior features over a much longer observation period. This paper proposes a sequential model-based clustering method to group the high-resolution Twitter locations and extract the Twitter displacements. Further, this study details the unique features of displacements extracted from Twitter including the demographics of Twitter user, as well as the advantages and limitations. The results are even compared with those from traditional household travel survey, showing promises in using displacement distribution, length, duration and start time to infer individual’s travel behavior. On this basis, one can also see the potential of employing social media to infer longitudinal travel behavior, as well as a large quantity of short-distance Twitter displacements. The results will supplement the traditional travel survey and support travel behavior modeling in a metropolitan area.     

Forecasting current and next trip purpose with social media data and Google Places

Trip purpose is crucial to travel behavior modeling and travel demand estimation for transportation planning and investment decisions. However, the spatial-temporal complexity of human activities makes the prediction of trip purpose a challenging problem. This research, an extension of work by Ermagun et al. (2017) and Meng et al. (2017), addresses the problem of predicting both current and next trip purposes with both Google Places and social media data. First, this paper implements a new approach to match points of interest (POIs) from the Google Places API with historical Twitter data. Therefore, the popularity of each POI can be obtained. Additionally, a Bayesian neural network (BNN) is employed to model the trip dependence on each individual’s daily trip chain and infer the trip purpose. Compared with traditional models, it is found that Google Places and Twitter information can greatly improve the overall accuracy of prediction for certain activities, including “EatOut”, “Personal”, “Recreation” and “Shopping”, but not for “Education” and “Transportation”. In addition, trip duration is found to be an important factor in inferring activity/trip purposes. Further, to address the computational challenge in the BNN, an elastic net is implemented for feature selection before the classification task. Our research can lead to three types of possible applications: activity-based travel demand modeling, survey labeling assistance, and online recommendations.     

Travel analytics: Understanding how destination choice and business clusters are connected based on social media data

Understanding how destination choice and business clusters are connected is of great importance for designing sustainable cities, fostering flourishing business clusters, and building livable communities. As sharing locations and activities on social media platforms becomes increasingly popular, such data can reveal destination choice and activity space which can shed light on human-environment relationships. To this end, this research models the relationship between characteristics of business clusters and check-in activities from Los Angeles County, California. Business clusters are analyzed via two lenses: the supply side (employment data by industry) and the demand side (on-line check-in data). Spatial and statistical analyses are performed to understand how land use and transportation network features affect the popularity of the identified clusters and their relationships. Our results suggest that a cluster with more employment opportunities and more types of employment is associated with more check-ins. A business cluster that has access to parks or recreational services is also more popular. A business cluster with a longer road network and better connectivity of roads is associated with more check-ins. The visualization of the common visitors between clusters reveals that there are a few clusters with outstanding strong ties, while most have modest ties with each other. Our findings have implications on the influence of urban design on the popularity of business clusters.     

认知语境与英语学习中的主动倾听

认知语境是一种理论构架,是人头脑中固有知识的集合体.主动倾听是听者积极寻找话语含义的一种认知方法,通过分析认知语境对英语学习中主动倾听影响,对大学英语的科研改革带来一点启示.     

社会转型期大学生思想道德教育对策思考

随着网络化、经济全球化的进程,中国社会正处在深刻变革和快速转型期,人们的价值观念、思维方式和行为方式发生剧烈变化,传统的道德规范受到了强烈冲击。正处在人生观、价值观、道德观的形成时期的大学生,面临极大的道德冲突与思想困惑。文章在分析大学生的思想道德现状及其成因的基础上,就社会转型期如何加强大学生思想道德建设进行探讨。     

Morning commute in a single-entry traffic corridor with no late arrivals

This paper analyzes a model of early morning traffic congestion, that is a special case of the model considered in Newell (1988). A fixed number of identical vehicles travel along a single-lane road of constant width from a common origin to a common destination, with LWR flow congestion and Greenshields’ Relation. Vehicles have a common work start time, late arrivals are not permitted, and trip cost is linear in travel time and time early. The paper explores traffic dynamics for the social optimum, in which total trip cost is minimized, and for the user optimum, in which no vehicle’s trip cost can be reduced by altering its departure time. Closed-form solutions for the social optimum and quasi-analytic solutions for the user optimum are presented, along with numerical examples, and it is shown that this model includes the bottleneck model (with no late arrivals) as a limit case where the length of the road shrinks to zero.