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1.
ABSTRACTThe advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics. 相似文献
2.
本文讨论了文献[1]给出的计算船体失效概率公式在原理及数值结果方面存在的问题,进而导得了相应的正确表达式。该式可用于分析各个海况对船体安全性的影响,为船体可靠性长期分析,提供了一个有效途径。 相似文献
3.
Two-dimensional and three-dimensional Green-Naghdi (GN) models equipped with a numerical wave-absorbing beach have been developed to simulate nonlinear, regular, and irregular wave propagation. The numerical beach is introduced near the downstream boundary to absorb outgoing waves. An appropriate amount of numerical damping and an appropriate length of numerical beach are investigated using numerical experiments. The results show that the GN models with a numerical beach work very well in simulating wave propagation in water in a small computational domain. 相似文献
4.
利用Boussinesq方程对作用于大直径圆筒结构上的波浪力进行数值模拟 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
采用求解Beji和Nadaoka改进的Boussinesq方程,模拟了波浪在多个串连大圆筒结构前的反射,得到了作用于圆筒结构上的波浪力。空间离散采用有限元方法,可以较好地适应圆筒结构表面形成的复杂边界形状。数值模拟结果与公开发表的物理模型试验成果进行了比较,符合较好。 相似文献
5.
自由结构动力优化设计中的特征灵敏度分析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
在结构动力优化设计中,特征灵敏度分析是一个十分重要的环节。如何在保证精度的前提下减少分析工作量具有重要意义。本文运用幂级数展开法,给出了诸如潜艇,鱼雷等自由结构特征灵敏度分析方法。 相似文献
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The timing and duration of an activity episode are two important temporal aspects of activity-travel behavior. Understanding the causal relationship between these two variables would be useful in the development of activity-based travel demand modeling systems. This paper investigates the relationship between these two variables by considering two different causal structures – one structure in which time-of-day choice is determined first and influences duration and a second structure in which activity duration is determined first and affects time-of-day choice. These two structures are estimated within a discrete-continuous simultaneous equations framework employing a full-information maximum likelihood methodology that allows error covariance. The estimation is performed separately for commuter and non-commuter samples drawn from a 1996 household travel survey data set from the Tampa Bay area in Florida. The results of the model estimation effort show that the causal structure in which activity duration precedes or affects activity timing (time of day choice) performs better for the non-commuter sample. For the commuter sample, the findings were less conclusive with both causal structures offering equally good statistical measures of fit. In addition, for the commuter sample, all error correlations were found to be zero. These two findings suggest that time of day choice and activity episode duration are only loosely related for the commuter sample, possibly due to the relatively non-discretionary and inflexible work activity and travel. 相似文献
9.
汽车轮胎结构非线性有限元分析 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
本文综述了轮胎力学的发展历史与现状,阐明了轮胎结构分析的几各主要方法、研究内容及其优缺点,并重点介绍了在子午三维非线性有限元结构分析方面的工作,包括轮胎的充气,竖直加载、稳态滚动、滚动阻力及温度场分析,给出了相应的算例。由于采用一些新的方法和技术,考虑了更真实的轮胎材料模型,结构和载荷,使得分析更为有效、精确,分析结果可作为轮胎的设计,试验与改进的依据。 相似文献
10.
南京长江二桥斜拉桥施工过程稳定性分析 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
针对南京二桥南汊钢斜拉桥,考虑结构的非线性和构件的极限承载能力,计入施工过程的变形和应力的叠加效应,用包含梁和索单元的空间组合结构模型,进行了大桥的结构行为分析,着重研究了在施工全过程中的结构稳定性问题。 相似文献