On the use of mathematical programming in the evaluation of transport policies

This paper focuses on the evaluation processes by which decisions regarding transportation alternatives can be assisted. A multidimensional approach usually called multiple criteria decision making is required to represent the complexity of transportation policy and systems.

The multiple criteria decision making techniques can be divided into two groups. The first is based on a ranking scheme approach and the second on a mathematical programming approach.

A multiple objective mathematical programming procedure known as Goal Programming is presented. The authors examined the use of that procedure in real transportation problems.

The results suggest that multiple objective mathematical programming techniques in general do not appear to be appropriate in transportation policy analysis involving mutually exclusive alternatives. Their use can be limited to special cases in the private sector.     

The Gothenburg congestion charge. Effects,design and politics

This paper summarizes the traffic effects of the Gothenburg congestion charges introduced in 2013. The system is similar to the system introduced in Stockholm in 2006; both are designed as time-of-day dependent cordon pricing systems. We find that many effects and adaptation strategies are similar to those found in Stockholm, indicating a high transferability between smaller and larger cities with substantial differences in public transport use. However, there are also important differences regarding some of the effects, the accuracy of the model forecasts and public support arising from different topologies, public transport use, congestion levels and main objectives communicated to the public. Finally, the Gothenburg case suggests that whether congestion charges are introduced or not depends on the support among the political parties, and that this is determined primarily by the prevailing institutional setting and power over revenues, and to a lower extent by the public support, and benefits from congestion reduction.     

Elasticities of fuel and traffic demand and the direct rebound effects: An econometric estimation in the case of Norway

We estimate the elasticities of fuel and travel demand with respect to fuel prices and income in the case of Norway. Furthermore, we derive the direct rebound effects that explain the degree to which a fuel price increase is “offset” in the form of greater fuel use and/or travel due to improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency. For this purpose, we use and compare two alternative econometric approaches: the error correction model (ECM) and the dynamic model. Our initial assumption is that one should not be indifferent with respect to the approach used to derive elasticities. The data used are for the period 1980–2011. Our results indicate the following: (1) the dynamic model fits the data better than the ECM model does; (2) the estimated elasticities of fuel demand with respect to price and income are −0.26 and 0.06 in the short run and −0.36 and 0.09 in the long run. For travel demand, the respective elasticities are −0.11 and 0.06 in the short run and −0.24 and 0.13 in the long run, implying inelastic demands for fuel and travel demand; and (3) rebound effects indicate that 0.26% and 0.06% of fuel savings as a result of fuel price increase will be offset in the form of more fuel use in the short run and in the long run, respectively, if fuel efficiency increases by 1%. Our policy recommendations are that policies should not be indifferent to the methods used to derive elasticities. We contend that it is crucial to seriously consider rebound effects in policy making because basic elasticity estimates exaggerate the impact of fuel price increases.     

Spatial Transferability and Updating Analysis of Mode Choice Models in Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

This article examines the spatial transferability of mode choice models in developing countries. An evaluation of the updating procedure and sample size are also included in the study. Because of the insufficiency of model coefficients in explaining differences in unmeasured modal attributes, naïvely transferring a model is not recommended. An understanding of the transport characteristics in both the estimation context and the application context is required, in order to justify whether a variable is transferable or not. Four updating procedures – updating alternative specific constants (ASCs), updating ASCs and scale parameter, the combined transfer estimator and Bayesian updating associated with three sets of small sample sizes – are applied to improve transferability. In general, the first three approaches produce significant improvements. It is also proposed that a minimum small sample size of 400 observations is necessary for updating purposes.     

Transferability of sustainable urban mobility measures

This paper describes an approach developed to identify common elements of city performance that have transferability potential across a number of cities. The findings provide a wealth of information sourced from 200 measures in 19 European cities. A transferability framework is proposed, that uses ideas from traditional top-down approaches using city clustering to infer the transferability of measures, as well as elements of a bottom-up approach, based on the concept of “measure enabling context”. Systems' thinking diagramming was used to depict relationships between measures, drivers and barriers, portraying the feedbacks at work and the cause-effect relationships, to establish appealing preconditions for transferability.     

Small area estimation of vehicle ownership and use

A national model of vehicle ownership and use is developed for the USA. Decisions about the number of cars owned by households and the annual miles traveled are jointly modeled using a discrete–continuous probit model, which has been estimated on the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data. The model system covers four Census Regions (Northeast, Midwest, South and West) and three area types (urbanized area, urban clusters and rural). Models’ estimates have been applied to data extracted from the American Community Survey (ACS) to forecast household vehicle demand at county level. Results show that the national models are transferable to small areas with different geographical and socio-demographic characteristics.     

Transferability of standardized regres Person-based approach sion model applied to person-based trip generation

In this paper, the transferability of person-based standardized regression models is analysed using two large-scale origin-destination household surveys with data collected in two Brazilian cities, Sa~o Paulo and Bauru. The models are specified in terms of dummy variables linked to socio-economic attributes which are considered relevant. A model, having home-based daily trips as a dependent variable, is calibrated according to data from the Sa~o Paulo Metropolitan Area and transferred to Bauru, and vice-versa. The transferability of the models is evaluated using the Wald test, which is an objective test applicable to two samples presenting different variances. According to the test, only standardized regression models are transferable. In addition, the performance of the models to estimate the number of trips generated in every zone of the urban areas is verified. The results indicate that the performance of standardized regression models is equivalent to the locally calibrated model.     

A European vision for more environmentally friendly buses

This paper deals with EBSF – European Bus System of the Future, 3iBS – the Intelligent, Innovative Integrated Bus Systems and ZeEUS – Zero Emission bUs Systems, three research projects funded by the European Commission, with the aim to develop a new generation of buses. The common task is to develop innovative solutions to increase the attractiveness of this mode and to operate more environmentally-friendly vehicles.Key working areas are more comfortable layouts, advanced ITS-based solutions to improve operations, new engines designed to save fuel and the enhancement of the electric option. Concern for the environment lies behind the majority of these innovations. The innovations are tested in real urban environments and performance assessed through Key Performance Indicators. Within EBSF it was also possible to perform a Transferability Exercise (TE) to assess the theoretical exportability of the innovations to more urban contexts.The research objective of this paper is to critically revise the projects’ results and present them for further applications beyond the European projects field. Results thus far stressed contrasting aspects within a common vision for the development of a new generation of buses. Stakeholders are well aware of the need to comply with the European standards in the field of sustainable mobility. This is shown by the fact that the majority of them are becoming more environmentally aware about the need to renew their fleets. However, because of economical reasons they fail to consider any environmental concerns in the TE, even when these should be crucial in the transfer decisions.