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1.
ABSTRACTThe advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics. 相似文献
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Two-dimensional and three-dimensional Green-Naghdi (GN) models equipped with a numerical wave-absorbing beach have been developed to simulate nonlinear, regular, and irregular wave propagation. The numerical beach is introduced near the downstream boundary to absorb outgoing waves. An appropriate amount of numerical damping and an appropriate length of numerical beach are investigated using numerical experiments. The results show that the GN models with a numerical beach work very well in simulating wave propagation in water in a small computational domain. 相似文献
3.
In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed. 相似文献
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基于马尔可夫链的极值波高预测 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文研究了由日最大波高系列估算设计极值波高时,相邻日最大波高间的相关性对极值预测的影响,从日最大波高系列遵从马尔可夫链的假定出发,考虑到国内外经常采用对数一正态分布的韦布尔分布拟合波高长期分布的现实,本文用解析法求解了对数一正态分布情况下的极值预测。同时,对解析法难以求解的非正态随机变量情况(如韦布尔分布),用计算机随机模拟方法求解其极值预测,用上述两种方法对北大西洋和北海有关日最大波高系列的预测 相似文献
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悬挂式单轨车辆走行轮在车辆运行中起到承载和传力的重要作用,其走行轮失效对悬挂式单轨车辆运行性能有重大影响。通过多刚体动力学理论建立悬挂式单轨车轨耦合动力学模型,仿真分析了不同工况下走行轮失效对单轨车辆曲线通过及运行平稳性的影响。仿真结果表明:空载状态下走行轮失效的悬挂式单轨车辆在曲线半径100 m的线路上限速为35 km/h,而满载状态下走行轮失效的车辆一直处于不安全状态,需要尽快行驶到就近站点疏散乘客;同侧走行轮失效对单轨车辆的影响趋势基本一致;在相同行车速度下,走行轮失效时竖向平稳性指标出现了部分数值超过3.0的情况,说明走行轮失效时车辆的运行平稳性会变差。仿真研究结果可为走行轮失效的悬挂式单轨车辆运行提供参考。 相似文献
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欧阳炼 《铁道科学与工程学报》2010,7(4)
路基沉降预测是指导正确施工及运营期路基养护的一个重要因素.GM(1,1)模型及Logistic模型被广泛应用于路基最终沉降量的预测.基于组合预测的基本理论,结合GM(1,1)模型及Logistic模型的特点,提出了GM(1,1)-Logistic组合路基沉降预测模型,采用线性组合预测方法,以过去一段时间内组合预测误差平方和最小为原则来求2个预测模型的加权系数.结合工程实际监测数据的计算结果和分析表明,GM(1,1)-Logistic组合预测模型在预测精度上比单个模型具有更好的适用性. 相似文献
9.
姜连青 《铁路通信信号工程技术》2010,7(6):61-65
无线通信不仅应满足城市轨道交通内部专用运营管理和业务需求,而且应提供公共移动通信服务,方便人民群众。那么,除了必须设置专用无线通信系统外,如何引入民用无线通信系统、如何避免相互影响以及系统设备共用等问题的解决,将保证无线通信质量的要求,避免无线通信系统的无序、重复建设和浪费资源。 相似文献
10.
研究目的:近年来我国轨道交通建设事业迅猛发展,但功率因数问题一直是困扰轨道交通供电系统的重要问题,常常导致电力部门的高额罚款。为提高功率因数,需对无功补偿方案进行研究。在分析国内城市轨道交通供电系统无功补偿现状的基础上,通过对整个供电系统综合功率因数的分析计算,研究几种无功补偿方案,并最终确定一种新的综合无功补偿方案。研究结论:城市轨道交通线路的无功补偿方案应根据自身供电系统的实际情况,并通过综合功率因数分析计算或实测分析,来综合考虑采用高压、低压侧相结合的无功补偿方案;在条件允许时,建议采用主所设SVG+各车站变电所0.4 kV侧设APF的综合补偿方案。 相似文献