基于尺寸工程的轿车行李箱盖总成与尾灯装配偏差分析

轿车车身尾灯区与周边零件的配合间隙和高度差体现了整车的设计水平和制造装配水平。分析了行李箱盖板总成和尾灯之间的装配偏差、与白车身之间的装配流程及相关的定位基准建立。介绍了如何利用均方根分析法RSS(Root Sum Square)分析装配偏差、总成偏差及进行零件误差分配，并进行了理论推导和实例分析。实践表明，通过分析零件的偏差来指导设计，可减少重复工作，提高设计合理性，尤其在结构方案设计初期更具有指导意义。     

On the variance of recurrent traffic flow for statistical traffic assignment

This paper generalizes and extends classical traffic assignment models to characterize the statistical features of Origin-Destination (O-D) demands, link/path flow and link/path costs, all of which vary from day to day. The generalized statistical traffic assignment (GESTA) model has a clear multi-level variance structure. Flow variance is analytically decomposed into three sources, O-D demands, route choices and measurement errors. Consequently, optimal decisions on roadway design, maintenance, operations and planning can be made using estimated probability distributions of link/path flow and system performance. The statistical equilibrium in GESTA is mathematically defined. Its multi-level statistical structure well fits large-scale data mining techniques. The embedded route choice model is consistent with the settings of O-D demands considering link costs that vary from day to day. We propose a Method of Successive Averages (MSA) based solution algorithm to solve for GESTA. Its convergence and computational complexity are analyzed. Three example networks including a large-scale network are solved to provide insights for decision making and to demonstrate computational efficiency.     

The multinomial logit model revisited: A semi-parametric approach in discrete choice analysis

The multinomial logit model in discrete choice analysis is widely used in transport research. It has long been known that the Gumbel distribution forms the basis of the multinomial logit model. Although the Gumbel distribution is a good approximation in some applications such as route choice problems, it is chosen mainly for mathematical convenience. This can be restrictive in many other scenarios in practice. In this paper we show that the assumption of the Gumbel distribution can be substantially relaxed to include a large class of distributions that is stable with respect to the minimum operation. The distributions in the class allow heteroscedastic variances. We then seek a transformation that stabilizes the heteroscedastic variances. We show that this leads to a semi-parametric choice model which links the linear combination of travel-related attributes to the choice probabilities via an unknown sensitivity function. This sensitivity function reflects the degree of travelers’ sensitivity to the changes in the combined travel cost. The estimation of the semi-parametric choice model is also investigated and empirical studies are used to illustrate the developed method.     

Application of advanced sampling for efficient probabilistic traffic modelling

In probabilistic traffic models, consideration of stochasticity in the dynamics of traffic gives a closer representation of a traffic system in comparison to that of a deterministic approach. Monte Carlo simulation is a broadly accepted method to consider variations in traffic within modelling. In this contribution, the possibility of increasing the efficiency of probabilistic traffic flow models using Monte Carlo simulation is analysed using variance reduction techniques and sequencing, for varied capacity and traffic demand values. The techniques of Importance Sampling, Latin Hypercube Sampling and Quasi-Random Sequencing are compared in a dynamic macroscopic traffic model to demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques for reduction of the computational load when considering multiple input variations. Demonstration of their efficiency in traffic modelling is expected to lead to a wider application of the methods in practice.     

高速铁路三维自由设站最优测量方法的仿真计算

自由设站测量在高速铁路轨道施工中应用广泛,是实现高速铁路高平顺性的重要技术保障之一,因此如何通过合理测量与平差得到正确的自由设站点坐标和进行精度的客观评定十分重要。通过仿真计算,认为当自由设站起算数据含有误差时,自由设站测量时设站点应尽量设置在所观测CPⅢ点构成的网形的几何中心,平差前应根据稳定性检验结果,确定正确的起算数据,平差计算时采用方差分量估计进行定权,这样将更合理地利用起算数据和观测值,从而得到正确的设站点坐标和精度评定,以保证轨道精调测量等工作的顺利进行。     

Efficient long-term fatigue analysis of deepwater risers in the time domain including wave directionality

Accurate fatigue assessment is a challenging and crucial aspect of riser design. The prediction of the long-term fatigue damage must account for numerous sea states of different wave heights, periods, and directions. Each sea state entails a dynamic analysis, often performed in the time domain owing to the significant nonlinearities. Because of the short-term uncertainties from irregular waves, the simulation duration must be sufficiently long for results to converge. To alleviate the hefty computational cost of long-term fatigue analysis, researchers have proposed efficient methods, but these are not without drawbacks; in particular, wave directionality is commonly neglected. This paper presents an efficient method for long-term fatigue analysis based on time domain simulation, considering wave directionality among other things. The proposed method is based on an enhanced version of control variates to reduce the variance in Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). The control function is constructed by training artificial neural network (ANN) models using existing MCS data. Here, a customized scheme is developed to allow for the situation that the training data and ANN prediction cases have different wave directions. The proposed method is unbiased and provides an error estimate. Simulations are performed on a floating system, and the proposed method is found to improve the efficiency of MCS significantly. Different scenarios such as fixed and random wave directions are compared, confirming that wave directionality is critical and should be included in a long-term fatigue assessment.     

The inherent precision of regression estimated route probabilities

From basic assumptions about independent and consistent driver behaviour, and with data from traffic counts, we derive statistical properties of regression or correlation estimates of route selection probabilities, turning probabilities and travelling times. Our modelling is conditional in a way that avoids most traffic generation problems and permits an asymptotic analysis of the precision under mild assumptions allowing non-stationarity. This allows us to put together non-stationary data from the corresponding time intervals during several days when we aim at high precision estimates.     

田口试验设计技术在铁路电器设计中的应用

以铁路用电磁接触器为例,应用田口试验设计方法对电磁接触器电磁部分设计的影响因素进行分析,识别出影响电磁吸力和稳定性的重要因子,影响电磁吸力稳定性的稳健因子,并制造样机进行实际电磁吸力的测量验证,进一步证实田口试验设计技术可以增加铁路电器设计的的稳健性,提高工作效率。     

基于正交设计的岩体力学参数灵敏性分析

针对岩土工程弹塑性位移反分析参数多、难度大的问题,就如何有效、合理地确定岩体的力学参数,进行工程设计和反演分析至关重要。灵敏系数在理论上虽然可用于判断位移对参数的灵敏性,但在实际工程中,结构状态函数很难用显式表示。故针对这一问题,结合地下洞室开挖的实际工况,采用FLAC”软件分析拱形洞室开挖过程中产生的拱顶竖向位移和拱角水平位移,应用正交表和方差分析的方法,分别进行模拟试验方案的确定和计算结果分析,实现位移对岩体力学参数灵敏性的分析研究,从而确定了关键反演参数。