Vulnerability analysis for large-scale and congested road networks with demand uncertainty

To assess the vulnerability of congested road networks, the commonly used full network scan approach is to evaluate all possible scenarios of link closure using a form of traffic assignment. This approach can be computationally burdensome and may not be viable for identifying the most critical links in large-scale networks. In this study, an “impact area” vulnerability analysis approach is proposed to evaluate the consequences of a link closure within its impact area instead of the whole network. The proposed approach can significantly reduce the search space for determining the most critical links in large-scale networks. In addition, a new vulnerability index is introduced to examine properly the consequences of a link closure. The effects of demand uncertainty and heterogeneous travellers’ risk-taking behaviour are explicitly considered. Numerical results for two different road networks show that in practice the proposed approach is more efficient than traditional full scan approach for identifying the same set of critical links. Numerical results also demonstrate that both stochastic demand and travellers’ risk-taking behaviour have significant impacts on network vulnerability analysis, especially under high network congestion and large demand variations. Ignoring their impacts can underestimate the consequences of link closures and misidentify the most critical links.     

Estimating economic and resilience consequences of potential navigation infrastructure failures: A case study of the Monongahela River

The paper examines the potential effects of failure of heavily used, outdated locks and dams on the Monongahela River in southwestern Pennsylvania. Catastrophic failure would result in lengthy outage of barge traffic. The displaced volume of coal shipments from mines to power plants is estimated using Energy Information Administration survey data. The resilience of the impacted facilities, the viability of their shipping alternatives, and their ability to re-organize into new markets is assessed. Lost revenues are estimated for facilities that close due to an inability to adapt, as well as the replacement cost of towboats and barges trapped by a catastrophic and sudden failure. The aggregate costs to these facilities as a result of a year-long closure are estimated at $0.56-1.7 billion.     

Indicators of reliability and vulnerability: Similarities and differences in ranking links of a complex road system

This article investigates two performance attributes of road networks, reliability and vulnerability, analyzing their similarities as well as the differences that justify distinct definitions, based on consolidation of recent studies. We also discuss the indicators found in the literature for these two performance attributes. Since various authors treat vulnerability as an aspect of reliability instead of a specific attribute, we carried out an application to a complex road network representative of the city of Rio de Janeiro to check the suitability of this approach. The results show that the vulnerability indicators are more strongly affected by the characteristics of alternative routes while the reliability metrics are more sensitive to the congestion level. The conclusion is that reliability and vulnerability should be treated distinctly for evaluating the performance of road network links.     

Transport resilience and vulnerability: The role of connectivity

This paper aims to adopt a critical stance on the relevance and interpretation of the recently emerging concepts of resilience and vulnerability in transportation studies. It makes a clear distinction between engineering and ecological interpretations of these concepts and offers a systematic typology of various studies in this field. A core element in the study is the linkage between the aforementioned concepts and connectivity/accessibility in transport networks. The methodological findings in the study are put in perspective by addressing also such concepts as robustness, reliability and friability of transport systems.     

基于能力谱的高架车站地震易损性分析

地震易损性分析是一种评估震害损失的方法。采用Pushover能力谱分析法对高架车站结构进行抗震性能研究,考察了层间位移角和塑性铰的出现机制,得到了易损性曲线和易损性矩阵。结果表明,高架车站结构实例在各级地震作用下主要发生轻微损坏或较小概率的中等程度损坏,层间位移角符合性能设计要求。分析所用的方法简易可行,结果可供参考。     

大客流扰动下的北京地铁脆弱性研究

近年来大客流对北京地铁的冲击使车站负荷强度不断增大,车站日常运营存在安全隐患,地铁系统逐渐呈现出脆弱性。地铁脆弱性表现为暴露度、易感度和适应度。鉴于地铁脆弱性体系具有层级性、定性定量结合性、多专家决策性、指标灰性等特点,综合运用层次分析法、灰色理论、模糊综合评价以及多专家决策理论,构建群体灰色层次模糊评价法(GGAHP)。基于指标体系评价法,根据现场考察、专家座谈等方式完成大客流扰动对北京地铁安全运营的影响因素识别,通过模糊德尔菲法建立评价指标体系,通过定量分析与定性评价相结合的方法,对北京地铁客流压力较大的典型车站进行脆弱性评价,并对评价结果进行分析总结。     

基于时效性的物流枢纽拓扑结构脆弱性分析

为了能够有效定位物流枢纽薄弱环节,保障物流枢纽的正常运营和可持续发展,运用复杂网络理论,基于物流枢纽脆弱性概念及其影响因素分析,通过因脆弱性使物流结点和联接线路失效后对物流枢纽时效性的影响分析,构建了物流枢纽系统脆弱度模型,并对一个典型的物流枢纽拓扑结构的脆弱性进行实例分析。结果表明脆弱度指标具有可比性和有效性,可用于物流结点及联接线路对物流枢纽拓扑结构脆弱性影响分析。     

A framework to analyze the vulnerability of European road networks due to Sea-Level Rise (SLR) and sea storm surges

This study proposes a framework to explore the concepts of exposure, vulnerability and connectivity in EU road network and to assess the potential transportation infrastructure sensitivities towards Sea-Level Rise (SLR) and storm surges. The magnitude and significance of impacts were determined and knowledge of network robustness was built up based on existing climate data and on future trends. Various spatial databases were integrated and a four-stage transport model was used to explore the likely impacts of network degradation. The pattern of the network was assessed via both node- and link-based measurements, where different road databases, namely TRANS-TOOLS and Tele Atlas/TomTom, were employed in order to analyze the impact of spatial resolution within network connectivity analyses. This general framework developed for European Union, was tested on a specific and articulated case study area; namely, the north-east coastal region of Spain. The research conducted, yielded useful methods for the analysis of network vulnerability, where impacts are more significant in regional accessibility patterns. Accessibility indicators at the regional level changed drastically, with some regions showing up to a 26% decrease. According to the results of network connectivity indicators, the changes in network topology have reduced the number of alternative routes and placed more pressure on the transport system. The implementation of this framework and quantitative assessment methodologies outlined in this paper could be employed to assist policy makers to recognize the opportunities that may arise or diminish the adverse effects.     

Accessibility,vulnerability, and resilience in a stochastic model of sustainable ecotourism

We show how the notions of accessibility, vulnerability, and resilience can be used to shed light on the sustainable management of a natural area that is used for ecotourism. To this end, we construct and analyze two queuing-theoretic models that approach the problem of sustainable management in different ways. In the first model, there is a capacity constraint on the number of ecotourists that are permitted to visit the natural area and the optimal rate at which an ecotourist agency manager provides service to the ecotourists is endogenously determined. In the second model, there is no capacity constraint but the manager endogenously ascertains the optimal number of ecotourists who are allowed into the natural area before he provides service to these ecotourists. The sustainability aspect of the management problem is addressed in two ways. First, the conceptualizations of accessibility, vulnerability, and resilience depend on certain long run metrics. Second, the objective functions in the two models that the manager optimizes are formulated using these long run metrics.     

Measuring vulnerability of urban metro network from line operation perspective

Urban metro systems are subject to recurring service disruption for various reasons, such as mechanical or electrical failure, adverse weather, or other accidents. In recent years, studies on metro networks have attracted increasing attention because the consequence of operational accidents is barely affordable. This study proposes to measure the metro network vulnerability from the perspective of line operation by taking the Shanghai metro network as a case study. As opposed to previous studies that focused largely on disruption of important nodes or links, this study investigates the disruption from the line operation perspective. Betweenness centrality (BC) and passenger betweenness centrality (PBC), number of missed trips, weighted average path length, and weighted global efficiency were analyzed considering relative disruption probability of each line. Passenger flow distribution and re-distribution were simulated for different disruption scenarios based on all-or-nothing assignment rule. The results indicate that the metro lines carrying a large number of passengers generally have a significant impact on the network vulnerability. The lines with circular topological form also have a significant influence on passenger flow re-distribution in case of a disruption. The results of this study provide suggestions on metro system administration for potential improvement of the performance of operation, and passengers may meanwhile have an improved alternate plan for their commute trip when a disruption occurs.