Investigating the influence of soil properties on railway traffic vibration using a numerical model

This paper presents the influence of dynamic and geometrical soil parameters on the propagation of ground vibrations induced by external loads. The proposed approach is based on a three-dimensional model, focusing on realistic excitation sources like impulse loads and moving railway vehicles. For the latter, a complete vehicle/track model is developed. The simulation is performed in time domain, offering an interesting approach, compared with classic cyclic analyses. The ground is modelled initially as an elastic homogeneous half-space and additionally as a layered half-space. First, the effect of homogeneous soil properties on ground vibration is analysed. Soil stratification is then taken into account, using various configurations. Analysis reveals that as receiver distance increases ground wave reflection in a layered ground plays an important role in the reduction of ground surface motion. This effect is magnified when the phase velocity wavelength becomes large compared with the depth of the surface layer.     

快速公交客流量影响因素解释结构模型构建与应用

针对当前交通拥堵、能源紧张、尾气污染等一系列问题,为加快快速公共交通的发展、提高公共交通利用率,本文找出了影响快速公交客流的主要因素,利用系统工程学中的ISM方法,构建了快速公交客流系统解释结构模型,通过分析探讨快速公交客流的主要影响因素,进而明确了各因素间的清晰结构,得到影响快速公交客流量的5级递阶结构;最后找出影响快速公交客流因素的各影响因素.通过影响因素,建立了多元回归模型,从影响程度、影响方向、影响时期分别归类分析.通过分析各层级因素对快速公交客流量的影响,可引导更多居民选择快速公交出行,对缓解交通压力提供了一定方法指导和决策支持.并通过合理分析为快速公交运输服务提出了建议.     

居民出行分布预测的改进模型研究

出行分布量与小区间现状出行有关,也与连接两小区间的道路网络及起终点的用地性质有关,传统出行分布预测模型都只考虑了这些因素的某一方面,因而在预测中经常会出现与实际明显不符的预测结果。按照出行个体在选择出行目的地时的行为,将影响出行目的地选择的几个重要因素：现状OD、小区用地性质、出行成本综合考虑,并按照影响方式不同,建立出行分布预测模型。计算实例表明,该模型的预测结果优于传统模型。     

交通冲突量的BP神经网络预测方法

交通冲突预测是进行交通事故预防和制定安全改善措施的有效手段，节约观测时间和人力。针对BP网络的缺点，提出了改进的快速BP算法，建立了交通冲突量的BP神经网络预测方法，并应用该方法对具体的交叉口交通冲突量的预测实例进行了研究，实践验证了该方法的有效性。     

Optimal selection of suspension parameters in large scale vehicle models

Optimum values are selected for the suspension damping and stiffness parameters of complex car models, subjected to road excitation, by applying suitable numerical methodologies. These models result from a detailed finite-element discretisation and possess a relatively large number of degrees of freedom. They also involve strongly nonlinear characteristics, due mostly to large rigid body rotation of some of their components and the properties of the connection elements. First, attention is focused on gaining some insight into the dynamics of the mechanical models examined, resulting when the vehicle passes over roads involving typical geometric profiles. Then, the emphasis is shifted to presenting results obtained by applying appropriate optimisation methodologies. For this purpose, three classes of design criteria are first set up, referring to passenger ride comfort, suspension travel and car road holding and yielding the most important suspension stiffness and damping parameters. Originally, the optimisation is performed by forming a composite cost function and employing a single-objective optimisation method. Since the design criteria are conflicting, a multi-objective optimisation methodology is also set up and applied subsequently.     

Influence of some vehicle and track parameters on the environmental vibrations induced by railway traffic

A study is performed on the influence of some typical railway vehicle and track parameters on the level of ground vibrations induced in the neighbourhood. The results are obtained from a previously validated simulation framework considering in a first step the vehicle/track subsystem and, in a second step, the response of the soil to the forces resulting from the first analysis. The vehicle is reduced to a simple vertical 3-dof model, corresponding to the superposition of the wheelset, the bogie and the car body. The rail is modelled as a succession of beam elements elastically supported by the sleepers, lying themselves on a flexible foundation representing the ballast and the subgrade. The connection between the wheels and the rails is realised through a non-linear Hertzian contact. The soil motion is obtained from a finite/infinite element model. The investigated vehicle parameters are its type (urban, high speed, freight, etc.) and its speed. For the track, the rail flexural stiffness, the railpad stiffness, the spacing between sleepers and the rail and sleeper masses are considered. In all cases, the parameter value range is defined from a bibliographic browsing. At the end, the paper proposes a table summarising the influence of each studied parameter on three indicators: the vehicle acceleration, the rail velocity and the soil velocity. It namely turns out that the vehicle has a serious influence on the vibration level and should be considered in prediction models.     

基于SARIMA模型的城市道路短期交通流预测研究

以城市道路短期交通特征为基础,提出在使用季节自回归求和移动平均（SARIMA）模型进行预测时还应该考虑交通流日周期性特征,以提高模型的预测能力。预测研究不仅考虑了模型的样本内预测而且考虑了样本外预测,并通过两个预测误差统计量,即预测误差绝对值均值和预测误差百分比绝对值均值,来对模型预测表现进行衡量与比较。研究结果显示,虽然只考虑城市道路短期交通流数据中周周期性的SARIMA模型预测能力比只考虑日周期性特征的SARIMA模型好,但是却比既考虑交通流数据中周周期性又考虑数据中的日周期性的SARIMA模型表现差。     

一般收费道路通行费收入实用预测方法研究

重点探讨实际道路规划项目中一般收费道路的收费收入预测方法,目的在于尽可能使收费收入预测更为精确。在我国,高速公路通常采用依靠征收通行费以偿还投资借贷的方式进行建设,因此在规划的过程中需要对通行费收入进行预测,并进行财务分析,以保证决策者做出正确的投资决策。以笔者在日本从事的高速公路建设项目为例,分析研究了基于实用型交通量增量分配方法结合使用车种转换矩阵的高速公路路网中一般收费道路通行费收入的预测方法,并将其应用到实际道路项目财务评价中。结果表明通过控制收费道路出入口间交通量预测精度,以及采用需求相关性较大的车种转换调查数据可以提高通行费预测精度。研究表明这一方法具有很强的实用性,该方法对我国的高速公路需求预测有着借鉴作用。     

交通预测原则和预测模型评价方法

在总结已有研究成果的基础上,提出了交通预测应遵循的原则,并对交通预测评价方法和模型选择等问题进行了探讨,以期更好地指导交通实际预测工作。     

Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.