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飞机多机种出动架次率是衡量飞机作战效能的重要指标,本文对空军场站军用飞机多机种（型）出动架次率进行了研究。通过对飞机出动回收过程的描述,基于排队理论建立多服务器多服务率的飞机多机种（型）出动回收网络模型,并采用扩展后的平均值分析对飞机出动能力进行了求解。通过解析计算,给出飞机多机种（型）出动架次率曲线,分析架次率与飞机数量之间的关系,并结合平均队长、利用率等系统性能指标,识别出制约飞机多机种（型）出动架次率提高的因素。最后通过蒙特卡洛仿真对构建的回收网络模型的计算结果进行验证。验证结果表明,飞机多机种（型）出动网络模型及其算法适合应用于实践中,并且有助于对空军场站飞机多机种（型）出动能力的研究。     

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures

ABSTRACT

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures links costs to system performance by combining a power-law function with time-dependent queueing analysis. Additionally, the model incorporates the marginal cost of capacity, including the effects of economies of scale. This allows the calculation of the marginal cost price under a dynamic framework. The model accounts for nonlinear behaviour of port demand, which is sensitive to price and service levels. The effects over time of cost and service levels on the port’s operational performance are quantified. The proposed model allows determining the optimal timing for capacity investment. The model is a starting point for the application of marginal cost pricing to ports. However, for practical application of such pricing method it is necessary to apply a system’s approach, as productivity and costs must be assessed at the terminal’s component level. This should allow the derivation of a marginal cost function at the terminal’s component level.     

伴有故障和延迟维修的清空排队系统的均衡分析

考虑一个马氏排队清空系统,将其看成一个在站台服务的容量无限的交通服务系统,顾客按照泊松过程到达系统后接受服务,而服务时间服从指数分布,假设交通工具容易出现故障,并且经过一个服从指数分布的延迟时间后,才能得到修理.在几乎可见情形下,顾客根据前面已进入系统的人数决定是否进入系统,结合一个线性支付函数,获得了顾客的均衡离开策略.     

基于流体逼近的路段交通流动态加载研究

路段交通流动态加载是动态交通网络分配模型中的重要组成部分,在路段交通流动态加载中,离散形式或者连续形式的点排队模型被广泛使用.本文在以往研究的基础上,提出基于流体逼近的连续型点排队模型,克服了原有点排队模型中排队负值的情况.通过分析可以发现,原有点排队模型实质上属于具有单一服务台和无限容量的排队模型,基于流体逼近的思想重新定义了原有点排队模型.其中3 个主要部分是流量守恒模型,车辆流出模型和时间相关的服务台模型,这3 个模型全部都是连续的.由于连续点排队对计算需求较高,本文将连续的排队模型离散化,模拟了3 种不同场景下车辆驶出、路段排队情况.本文模型克服了原有点排队中的负排队现象,并且排队过程满足先进先出的原则,模型具有良好的模拟效果.     

Border crossing delay prediction using transient multi-server queueing models

As a result of the continued increase in travel demand coupled with the need for tighter security and inspection procedures after September 11, border crossing delay has recently become a critical issue with tremendous economic and social costs. The current paper develops multi-server queuing models to estimate border crossing delay in support of a predictive traveler information system for the crossings. Two classes of multi-server models are considered: (1) models with exponential inter-arrival times and Erlang service times; and (2) a more generic model with a Batch Markovian Arrival Process (BMAP) and phase types (PH) services. As a case study, the models are developed based on real-time traffic volume and inspection time data collected at one of the major US–Canada border crossings, the Peace Bridge, and their transient solution is obtained using heuristic methods. For validation, the queueing models’ estimates are compared to the results from a detailed microscopic traffic simulation model of the Peace Bridge border crossing. The comparison shows that the transient queueing model, along its heuristic solution algorithm, is capable of predicting border crossing delay. Finally, a set of sensitivity analysis tests are conducted, and the developed models are incorporated within an optimization framework to help inform border crossing management strategies.     

完全信息下可修M/M/1排队系统的均衡分析

研究可修M/M/1排队系统的均衡策略.顾客到达系统后可以观察到系统的队长和服务台的状态（工作或处于修理状态）,根据这些系统状态、排队等待费用及完成服务后的回报报酬等信息,顾客将决定是否加入到系统中.本文在修理时间服从k阶Erlang分布的假设下得到了顾客选择进入排队系统的均衡阈值.     

On the capacity of isolated, curbside bus stops

The maximal rates that buses can discharge from bus stops are examined. Models were developed to estimate these capacities for curbside stops that are isolated from the effects of traffic signals. The models account for key features of the stops, including their target service levels assigned to them by a transit agency. Among other things, the models predict that adding bus berths to a stop can sometimes return disproportionally high gains in capacity. This and other of our findings are at odds with information furnished in professional handbooks.     

一个结合库存策略的物流选址模型

通过对最优库存策略的研究,在总需求一定的情况下,得出总库存费用与配送中心数目的平方根模拟表达式,并进一步提出考虑库存成本的选址模型。克服了以往物流选址模型中忽略库存成本这一主要因素的缺陷,使配送中心选址决策进一步完善。在给出了遗传算法的基础上,结合实际情况对模型及其算法予以简化使之具有实用性。     

Analysing queueing at toll plazas using a coupled,multiple-queue,queueing system model: application to toll plaza design

A vehicle approaching a toll plaza observes the queues at each of the available toll-lanes before choosing which to join. This choice process, the arrival process of vehicles and the service characteristics of the toll-booths, affect the queues and delay the drivers. In this paper, queueing at a toll plaza is modelled as a multiple-queue queueing system where the arrival process to a queue (toll-lane) is dependent on the state of all the queues. In the past, such systems have been modelled mathematically only for two queues and are not applicable for toll plazas with three or more toll-lanes. The proposed model determines the steady-state probability density function (pdf) for the queues at large toll plazas. This study is used to determine the number of toll-lanes or the length of the upstream queueing area required to achieve certain user-specified levels-of-service. Expected delay and maximum queue length are used as level-of-service measures. Indicative design charts are also provided.     

基于M/G(n)/C/C排队模型的高速公路 行程时间估计

为解决现有高速公路行程时间估计并未考虑交通流实时变化特性的问题,以宏观交通流中 流量—密度—速度之间的关系为基础,以速度与密度的线性模型和指数模型为例,假设车辆到达 服从泊松分布,构建了高速公路路段M/G(n)/C/C状态相关性排队模型,该排队模型服务时间与系 统内的车辆数有关,充分反映了交通流的随机性。在Vissim 中构建仿真路网,通过对比仿真实验 结果与模型计算结果可知,两者基本一致,误差在5%以内,且指数模型较线性模型适用范围更 广,更符合实际情况。