围岩变形预测的Richards模型及变形发展趋势分析

隧道围岩变形是隧道工程的设计和施工的重要参数,由于Richards生长曲线与隧道围岩变形-时间曲线具有相似性,将Richards模型引入到围岩变形预测中,通过围岩变形-时间曲线的拟合预测未来围岩变形发展趋势和围岩极限变形值。通过工程实例具体分析了Richards模型的应用效果,结果表明：Richards模型可以较好的预测隧道围岩变形发展过程;只有当围岩变形进入了明显的稳定发展阶段,可以得到良好的预测效果;Richards模型预测效果要优于指数曲线模型和双曲线模型,具有更好的应用价值。

Richards Model for Surrounding Rock Deformation Prediction and Deformation Development Trend Analysis

Tunnel surrounding rock deformation is a very important parameter for tunnel engineer- ing design and construction. In consideration of the similarity between Richards growth curve and tunnel surrounding rock deformation-time curves, Richards model is introduced to forecast the surrounding rock deformation with fitting surrounding rock deformation-time curves and predicting the future development trend and the limit deformation value of surrounding rock deformation. The performance of Richards mod- el is analyzed in detail by engineering examples. The results show that Richards model can forecasting the tunnel surrounding rock deformation development process well; when the surrounding rock deformation has entered stable development stage obviously, the predictive performance of Richards model is very well; the prediction performance of Richards model is superior to Exponential curve model and Hyperbol- ic model, and has better application value.