基于最大熵原理的地基变形分析

通过分析常规方法在沉降修正系数的选取中具有的定值性和随意性,引入建立在过去信息和现在样本信息之上的Bayes理论,结合某客运专线红粘土路基工程,提出用后验分布得到修正系数的取值范围。实例研究表明:用以往经验综合样本信息估计修正系数的先验概率在某一区间上服从均匀分布,由现场载荷试验实测沉降量与理论计算沉降量分析所得的修正系数,将现场量测的沉降变形信息与先验信息结合起来,利用Bayes统计理论,由小样本试验数据推算得到修正系数的后验概率服从正态分布,并对其参数进行区间估计,将修正系数的取值从较大区间进行优化,进而分析了在不同荷载作用条件下,沉降修正系数的概率分布模型。

Research on deformation of foundation based on maximum entropy principle

Through the analysis of the definiteness and randomness in choosing the settlement modification coefficients by the traditional calculation methods for foundation deformation,the maximum entropy theory and bayesian statistic theory were put forward.According to this method the old information was combined with the sample information.The posterior distribution of settlement modification coefficients are obtained.Conjoining the road bed engineering structure of one passenger dedicated railway,the value range of settlement modification coefficients are obtained through its posterior distribution.Based on the maximum entropy theory,the priori probabilities of modification coefficients were estimated to obey uniform distribution.The settlement modification coefficients are obtained through analysing the observed deformation and calculation deformation.Combining the deformation information from the field tests with the prior information,the posterior probabilities of modification coefficients were calculated to obey normal distribution by bayesian statistic theory.The article carried on estimation of bayesian confidence interval and optimum interval estimation.After calculation above,the ranges of modification coefficients have been obtained under different load conditions.