OD流仿真模型在珠三角集装箱港口群布局规划中的应用研究

构建由珠三角集装箱运输OD流运输网络、港口模糊综合评价模型、中转港选择的Logit模型3大部分构成的OD流仿真模型。在2020年珠三角集装箱生成量预测基础上,应用该模型对区域内集装箱运输需求在各OD流路径中的运输量进行仿真模拟测算,科学合理地预测该年度珠三角各港的集装箱吞吐量,为2020年度的珠三角集装箱港口群的合理布局规划提供指引。

Application of OD flow simulation model applied to layout planning for container port group in Pearl River Delta

OD flow simulation model constructed in the paper consists of container transport OD flow networkin the Pearl River Delta, fuzzy synthesis assess model for port evaluation, and Logit model for the transshipmentport selection. The paper applies the models to simulate and calculate the container transport demand in differentOD flow paths based on the container generating volume forecast in the Pearl River Delta in 2020 and forecaststhe annual throughput of container ports in the Pearl River Delta, so as to provide a guidance for the rational layoutplanning for container ports in the Pearl River Delta in 2020.