Risk factors and theory building: a study to improve passenger vessel safety |
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Authors: | Paul S Szwed |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Management and Center of Maritime Policy & Strategic Studies, U.S. Coast Guard Academy, New London, CT, USA |
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Abstract: | Given the inherent complexity of the maritime transportation system, developing effective policy can be challenging. Using
risk factors identified by an elicitation and aggregation of expert judgment, a relative-risk rating scheme was developed
in the theory-building tradition of the social sciences. The model was empirically evaluated using 18 months of data from
the US small passenger vessel sector. The model identified that the top 10% of relatively highest risk vessels accounted for
50% of all marine casualties during the period of examination. A policy for deploying the model nationally is proposed. |
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