基于EMD方法的我国主要海港货物吞吐量变化规律研究

利用经验模态分解（EMD）方法对近10年来我国沿海主要港口货物吞吐量变化的内在规律进行了研究．结果表明：（1）EMD方法能有效的揭示港口货物吞吐量变化的一些内在规律，如吞吐量变化的季度、半年、年和多年周期；（2）进入21世纪以来，我国港口吞吐量增长势头强劲，但2009年后明显受到金融危机的影响．

Study on the Variation Characteristics of Coastal Ports Throughput in China with Empirical Mode Decomposition Method

Using empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method, the throughput variation tics of China coastal ports during last 10 years were analyzed. The results shows that： （1） EMD method can effectively reveal the inherent laws of port cargo throughput changes, such as the quarter- ly, biannual, annual and multiyear variation cycles; （2） Since the beginning of twenty-first Century, throughputs of China ports grow fast, but which was significantly affected by the financial crisis after 2009. These are important for improve the port throughput forecast.