基于动态系泊软件的泊位敏感性分析及不可作业时间研究

以非洲某港为例，将影响船舶作业的风、浪、流等主要因素进行敏感性分析，找出各影响因素的特点及规律，确定典型工况计算数量，使用MIKE21MA软件进行系泊分析，将计算结果与控制标准进行比较，通过与波高、周期联合频率分布结合推算不可作业时间。结果表明：单考虑系泊条件，完全不稳定系泊时间占9.41%（37 d），瞬时不稳定系泊时间占41.4%（148 d），完全稳定系泊时间占49.19%（约180 d）；本工程确定不可作业时间的方法可推广至类似的受长周期波影响的码头工程，敏感性分析可以在有限资源条件下，减少计算组次、提高计算效率。

Berth sensitivity analysis and non-operational time based on dynamic mooring software

Taking a port in Africa as an example,we conduct the sensitivity analysis on the main influencing factors such as wind,waves,and currents that affect ship operations,identify the characteristics and patterns of each influencing factor,and determine the calculation quantity of typical working conditions.Then we use MIKE21MA software for mooring analysis,compare the calculation results with control standards,and calculate the non-operational time by combining them with the joint frequency distribution of wave height and period.The results show that considering mooring conditions alone,the completely unstable mooring time accounts for 9.41% (37 days),instantaneous unstable mooring time accounts for 41.4% (148 days),and the completely stable mooring time accounts for 49.19% (approximately 180days).The method for determining the non-operational time in this project can be extended to similar terminal projects affected by long period waves.Sensitivity analysis can reduce calculation groups and improve calculation efficiency under limited resource conditions.