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城市交通系统是一个开放的复杂巨系统，城市交通管理的政策措施会对居民出行行为造成影响，为使城市交通系统能最大限度地发挥效益，一个城市的规划设计人员经常需要对居民出行需求进行了解，城市居民的出行选择与城市交通系统的服务时间、费用、环境及可选交通工具等诸多因素有关，本文从城市居民出行需求角度出发，考虑出行者的性别和职业属性，建立了基于出行费用、走行时间、出行次数的城市居民出行Multinomial Logit 模型，采用Maximum Likelihood方法进行参数估计，并以中国西北部城市兰州市A区为实例，通过计算机模拟仿真拟合计算得到了该区人员出行行为的分析结果，这一结果可作为兰州市交通管理部门制订相关政策，引导市民出行的依据。

Analysis and Application for Urban Inhabitant Travel Demand Models

Transport planners often need to forecast impacts on travel demand of transport policies,e.g.,construction of a new transport alternative,changing public transit fares,or imposing road pricing schemes.On the other hand,the choices of urban transportation systems are influenced by various factors.These factors include the levels of transportation services(e.g.,travel time,cost,frequency,number of transfer),and the attributes of trip makers(e.g.,age,gender,occupation,income).Trip makers have to balance the influences of these factors.To make choice of the urban transportation systems,it is expected that trip makers evaluate the levels of services based on their experiences.In this paper,a Multinomial Logit model is proposed,and a data set has been collected from a recent survey,which was carried out in Lanzhou city of China.It is expected that the travel behavior might be heterogeneous among trip makers and,the response(or parameter of) to the level of service is defined as a function of the attributes of the trip maker.In addition,the paper is also aimed at proposing some urban transportation policies based on a new type of discrete choice model.