A dynamic model system of household car ownership,trip generation,and modal split: model development and simulation experiment |
| |
Authors: | Ryuichi Kitamura |
| |
Institution: | (1) University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA; |
| |
Abstract: | A dynamic model of household car ownership and mode use is developed and applied to demand forecasting. The model system consists
of three interrelated components: car ownership, mechanized trip generation, and modal split. The level of household car ownership
is represented as a function of household attributes and mobility measures from the preceding observation time point using
an ordered-response probit model. The trip generation model predicts the weekly number of trips made by household members
using car or public transit, and the modal split model predicts the fraction of trips that are made by public transit. Household
car ownership is a major determinant in the latter two model components. A simulation experiment is conducted using sample
households from the Dutch National Mobility Panel data set and applying the model system to predict household car ownership
and mode use under different scenarios on future household income, employment, and drivers’ license holding. Policy implications
of the simulation results are discussed. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|