基于概率统计理论的滚石运动轨迹数值模拟

滚石作为边坡特别是高陡边坡的一种浅表部破坏方式，是严重的地质灾害之一。因其具有突发性高、随机性强，发生频繁和破坏形式复杂等特点，一直是边坡工程勘察治理中的重点和难点。结合四川省南江县杨树村危岩处治工程，运用滚石分析软件对滚石运动轨迹进行数值模拟，分析了危岩段潜在滚石的运行轨迹——最远运移距离和最大弹跳高度以及不同位置的冲击动能和运行速度，探讨了数值模拟在滚石处治设计中的应用。模拟计算结果为“滚石的运动路径已覆盖公路及附近的房屋，严重影响公路的正常运行和居民安全”。设置拦石墙和种植乔木进行滚石防护后，保障了

Numerical Simulation on Rockfall Trajectory Based on Probability and Statistics Theory

Rockfall, as a form of damage to superficial portion of slope, especially steep slope, is a very serious geologic hazards. Because of its abruptness, randomness, frequence, and complex damaging mode, it is always important and difficult in slope engineering exploration and control. Combined with the treatment of dangerous rock at Yangshu Village in Nanjiang County, Siehuan, this paper, by rockfall analysis software and numerical simulation of rockfall trajectory, analyzed the potential roekfall trajectory in the section of dangerous rock, including furthest moving distance, maximum jumping height, and both impact kinetic energy and running speed at different positions; meanwhile, it discussed the application of numerical simulation in rockfall control design. The result of the simulation shows that the motion path of rockfall has covered the road and the houses nearby, endangering the normal operation of the road and the residents to a serious extent. Thus rock retaining wall and trees planting are set for the purpose of rockfall protection, securing the normal operation of the road and the residents.