综合管廊投资运营模式选择模型构建研究

为从当前国内常用的投资运营模式中遴选出与综合管廊项目特征契合的模式，保障综合管廊实现成功运营，通过对国内常用的几种投资运营模式进行分析，建立以项目特征、工作效能、社会效益、经济效益和项目风险为准则层、包含18个指标的综合管廊投资运营模式选择指标体系，选择逼近理想解对指标进行量化计算。运用层次分析法与逼近理想解相结合的方法克服逼近理想解无法确定指标权重的缺点，并引入云模型对层次分析法和逼近理想解分别加以改进，充分考虑模式选择过程中专家评价语言的不确定性，构建基于云模型改进AHP-TOPSIS的综合管廊投资运营模式选择模型，同时以西安市某综合管廊PPP项目Ⅰ标段为案例，验证了该模式选择模型具有较高的拟合度。

Model Building for Investment and Operation Mode Selection of Utility Tunnel

It is very important to select a proper investment and operation mode for utility tunnel to realize successful operation of utility tunnel. Hence, by analyzing several common investment and operation modes of utility tunnel in China, an index system for selecting investment and operation mode of utility tunnel is established by taking project characteristics, work efficiency, social benefits, economic benefits and project risks as criterion layer which including 18 indices; and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS) is selected to quantitatively calculate the index. The combination method of analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and TOPSIS is used to overcome shortcomings that TOPSIS cannot determine the weight of the index; the cloud model is introduced to improve the AHP and TOPSIS respectively; further more, the uncertainty of expert evaluation language in the process of mode selection is fully considered to build the selection model of investment and operation mode of utility tunnel based on AHP TOPSIS improved by cloud model. The Bid Ⅰ of PPP project of a utility tunnel in Xi′an is taken for example to verify the fit degree of the selected model.