基于突变理论的杏园村泥石流危险性评价

以北京市房山区杏园村南部发育的泥石流为例，根据其独特的地质环境，从泥石流的致灾历史与规模、地形地貌条件、地质条件、诱发因素四个方面着手，选取泥石流发生频率、一次最大冲出量等11个泥石流危险性评价指标，并建立分级标准将泥石流危险性分为6个等级。将突变理论用于泥石流危险性评价，综合考虑了各评价指标间的相关性，真实地描绘了泥石流系统的内在机制，得出杏园村泥石流危险性等级为低度偏中度危险。

Assessment on Debris Flow Hazard of Xingyuan Village Based on Catastrophe Theory

This paper takes the debris flow in the south of Xingyuan Village, Fangshan District, Beijing, as an example. According to the unique geological environment and proceeding from the disaster history and scale, topographical conditions, geological conditions and inducing factors of debris flow, 11 hazard assessment indexes are selected, such as the frequency and the maximum outrush amount of debris flow, and the classification standard is established to divide the hazard into 6 grades. The catastrophe theory is applied to the hazard assessment and the hazard grade of the debris flow based on the comprehensive evaluation correlation among the indexes and truly describes the intrinsic mechanism of debris flow system.