基于统计方法的滑坡滑程预测分析

为了预测滑坡的滑程，基于国内外343个典型灾难性滑坡数据资料，通过统计方法对滑坡最大垂直距离H与最大水平距离L、等效摩擦系数H/L与滑坡体积对数LgV之间的关系以及不同岩质类型滑坡对应的等效摩擦系数和滑坡体积分布区间进行了分析，提出了基于统计方法的滑坡滑程预测模型，并结合工程实例对滑程预测模型进行了验证分析。分析表明:滑坡最大垂直距离H与最大水平距离L具有良好的正幂律关系；等效摩擦系数H/L与滑坡体积Log（

Prediction and Analysis of Landslide Slippage Based on Statistical Method

The slippage of landslide has important practical significance for landslide disaster prevention and mitigation. In order to predict the slippage of landslide, 343 typical landslide data at home and abroad are used. The relationship between the maximum vertical distance H and the maximum horizontal distance L, the equivalent friction coefficient H/L and the landslide volume logarithm lgV, the equivalent friction coefficient and the landslide volume distribution of different rock type landslides were studied by statistical method. The interval is analyzed, a landslide slip prediction model based on statistical method is proposed, and the model is verified and analyzed with engineering examples. The analysis results show that there is a good positive power law relationship between the maximum vertical distance H and the maximum horizontal distance L, and there is a negative exponential relationship between the equivalent friction coefficient H/L and the landslide volume lgV. The distribution of landslide data points of the same kind of rock materials shows no obvious regularity. Based on the statistical results, a slippage prediction model based on the landslide area A and the maximum vertical height H of the landslide is put forward, and the model is applied to the "12·20" Shenzhen Guangming landslide accident. The results show that although there is a difference between the predicted results and the actual slippage, the model can effectively reflect and predict the landslide slippage to some extent.