| 冗余信息交通事故再现可靠性分析的综合模型法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张雷,李一兵.冗余信息交通事故再现可靠性分析的综合模型法[J].交通运输工程学报,2009,9(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张雷 李一兵 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学,汽车安全与节能国家重点实验室,北京,100084
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| 基金项目： | 公安部重点攻关计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了评价交通事故再现分析结果的可信性,将高阶矩技术、随机摄动法和Edgeworth级数与交通事故再现分析技术相结合,提出了交通事故再现可靠性分析方法,给出了再现分析结果的置信度和置信区间.针对具有冗余信息的交通事故再现分析,应用主观赋权法、可靠性分析技术和优化求解技术,提出了冗余信息交通事故再现可靠性分析的综合模型法.最后通过实际交通事故案例进行了事故再现分析.研究结果表明:该方法在考虑各基本因素客观不确定性的基础上同时结合了专家经验,与各基本再现分析模型计算结果相比,其均值趋于各基本再现分析模型的中间值,其变化范围(标准差)最小,再现分析结果更具科学性和准确性.
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| 关 键 词： | 交通安全 事故再现 可靠性 冗余信息 Edgeworth级数 主观赋权法 |
Comprehensive-model method of reliability analysis for traffic accident reconstruction with redundant information |
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| ZHANG Lei,LI Yi-bing.Comprehensive-model method of reliability analysis for traffic accident reconstruction with redundant information[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,2009,9(3). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Lei LI Yi-bing |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy;Tsinghua University;Beijing 100084;China |
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| Abstract: | In order to estimate the creditability of traffic accident reconstruction analysis,a reconstruction reliability analysis method was put forward which combined high-order moment technology,probabilistic perturbation method,Edgeworth series and reconstruction analysis technology.The confidence interval and confidence of reconstruction analysis result were obtained as the estimate indexes of the creditability.For traffic accident reconstruction reliability analysis with redundant information,a comprehensive-mo... |
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| Keywords: | traffic safety accident reconstruction reliability redundant information Edgeworth series subjective weighting method |
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