考虑驾驶员预测特性的带有上匝道的宏观交通流模型

高速公路入口匝道车流对高速公路主路车流存在较大影响，在未来车联网环境下，驾驶员能够获取更为丰富的交通信息，并对下一时段的交通状态做出预判.本文提出考虑有驾驶员预测特性的带有匝道的新格点流体动力学模型.基于线性稳定性分析方法，得到关于新格点模型的中性稳定性条件；在非线性稳定性分析中，采用还原扰动法推导模型在临界点附近的mKdV(modified Korteweg de Vries)方程，求解方程所得的扭结-反扭结孤立波，可以用于描述交通密度波在中性稳定曲线附近的传播机制.最后，基于仿真算例验证匝道交通流率和驾驶员预测时间对交通流稳定性的重要影响.

A Macro Traffic Flow Model with On-ramp Considering Driver's Predictive Effect

The impact of freeway on-ramp traffic has a great impact on the main highway traffic, while the drivers can obtain a wealth of traffic information under connected vehicle environment, which facilitates drivers to predict short- term future traffic conditions. However, the change pattern of traffic state under such acomplex traffic environment remains unclear. For this reason, this paper proposes a new type of grid-based fluid dynamics model with on- ramp, taking into account the driver predictive characteristics. Based on the linear stability analysis method, this paper obtains the neutral stability conditions of the new lattice model. In the nonlinear stability analysis, the mKdV(modified Korteweg de Vries) equation of the new model near the critical point is derived by the reduction perturbation method. The kink- anti- kink solitary wave can be used to describe the propagation mechanism of traffic density waves near the neutral stability curve. Finally, based on simulation examples, it is verified that the on-ramp traffic flow rate and the driver's prediction time have an important effect on the stability of the traffic flow.