站城融合模式下既有铁路车站城市功能开发体量预测研究

针对站城融合模式，提出对既有铁路车站及其影响区域的城市功能开发体量预测方法.考虑车站周边道路交通剩余能力和城市规划中对土地容积率的要求，协调枢纽城市功能和交通功能体量的比例关系，建立铁路既有车站城市功能的体量预测模型，并利用商业求解器对模型求解，得到各业态开发总体量的范围.以重庆沙坪坝综合交通枢纽城市功能开发为例，检验求解结果与实际开发体量的契合度及有效性.分析枢纽交通功能占比和容积率的敏感性，验证模型的适用性.计算结果表明，本文方法能有效利用道路承载能力，在适应城市整体发展要求的情况下，实现枢纽和土地的一体化发展，为投资者加强土地集约开发提供新思路.

Forecasting Volume of Urban Function Development of Existing Railway Station with Integrating Station-city Development

This paper proposed a method to forecast the urban function development volume for an existing railway station and its affected areas. The scientific and effective suggestions were then provided for station-city integration development due to the growing demand of urban Transit- Oriented Development (TOD). This paper analyzed the traffic residual capacity of roads around the station and the restriction of the plot ratio of urban planning, with the consideration of the proportion between the volume of the urban function and the traffic function. A volume forecasting model of the urban function was developed for the existing railway station and the model was solved by a commercial solver. The range of the overall development volume was obtained for various commerce formats. The Shapingba integrated transport hub in Chongqing, China was taken as an example to test the consistency between the solution results and the actual volume. The sensitivity of transportation function proportion and plot ratio were analyzed to verify the validity and applicability of the model. The results show that the method can effectively exploit the road loading capacity and achieve the coordinated development of rail hub and land- use that meets the overall urban development requirements. The proposed method provides a new perspective for investors to strengthen the intensive land use.