城市主干道路段机动车与机动车之间事故的Bow-tie模型

针对城市主干道路段上交通事故的成因、后果及主被动安全控制措施开展研究工作，基于多事件链原理并应用三角模糊数法，建立了城市主干道路段机动车与机动车之间事故的Bow-tie模型.基于Bow-tie模型中的故障树，确定出了主干道路段机动车之间事故的3条主要事故成因链，即追尾事故成因链、侧面碰撞事故成因链和刮擦事故成因链.Bow-tie模型中的事件树表明，驾驶员能够正确使用安全带但道路上无缓冲防撞设施且辖区内无紧急救援系统的事件链发生概率最高，达59.68%；驾驶员没有使用安全带且道路上无缓冲防撞设施时，事故发生后的事故严重程度都较高.针对3条事故成因链及2条事件链，给出了预防事故发生的防控措施和事故发生后可降低其严重程度的减缓控制措施.

Vehicle Accidents Bow-tie Model on Urban Arterial Road

his study investigated the causes and consequences of traffic accidents on urban arterial roads, along with the active and passive safety control measures. Based on the multi-event chain and triangular fuzzy number method, the study developed a Bow-tie model for vehicle-vehicle accidents on urban arterial road. Based on the fault tree in the Bow-tie model this study analyzed three major accident cause chains including rear-end collisions, side- impact collisions, and sideswipe collisions. The event tree in the Bow- tie model shows that in the circumstances that the driver use the seat belt correctly, but there are no buffering and anti-collision facilities on the road side and no emergency rescue system in the jurisdiction, the event chain has the highest probability of occurrence, reaching 59.68%.When the driver does not use a seat belt and there are no buffering and anti-collision facilities on the road, the severity of the accident after the accident is significant. The study also proposed the preventive control countermeasures that can reduce the severity of the accidents for the three accident cause chains and two event chains.