灰色动态模型群在城市轨道交通客流预测中的应用研究

随着城市轨道交通的快速发展,客流预测作为一项基础工作,在城市轨道交通规划、设计、建设及运营等环节中起着至关重要的作用.鉴于城市轨道交通客流具有周期性变化的特点,依据灰色系统理论,本文提出了由多个灰色Verhulst模型组成的灰色动态模型群,以某城市轨道交通线路为例进行短期客流的预测分析.实例计算证明了采用动态模型群的预测平均值作为最终预测,具有较高的预测精度,可满足实际应用需求.

Application research on grey dynamic model group in passenger flow prediction for urban transit

With the rapid development of urban transit, passenger flow prediction, as a basic work, was playing a vital role in the plan, design, construction, operation and other sectors of urban transit. According to the characteristics of periodic change of urban transit, a grey dynamic model group made up of several Verhulst models was put forward. And this model group was used to predict the short-term flow of an urban transit line. Then, an average of the model group predictions was used as the final result. The prediction result of this model group was proved more accurate than that of a simply grey model group and could meet the needs of practical application.