Does the aviation Emission Trading System influence the financial evaluation of new airplanes? An assessment of present values and purchase options |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran;2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz 71936, Iran |
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Abstract: | In this paper we assess the impact of the CO2 costs for short- and long-haul aircraft based on present values and on purchase options. We evaluate purchase options with a framework developed for real option analysis to estimate the value of flexibility under uncertain kerosene and CO2 prices. We find an average influence of CO2 costs on present values of €1.1 million for the short haul plane and €4.1 million for the long-haul plane over the typical lifetime of an airplane. For purchase options, we find a CO2 influence of €0.43 million for the long-haul plane and a moderate impact for the short-haul plane. The results underline the importance of CO2 and kerosene costs for long-haul aircraft. |
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