Rapid estimation of global civil aviation emissions with uncertainty quantification |
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| Institution: | 1. Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;2. Energy Efficient Cities Initiative, Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1PZ, UK;1. Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, PR China;2. Petroleum Company Ltd., China National Aviation Fuel Group, Beijing 100088, PR China;3. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;4. School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Meilong Road 130, Shanghai 200237, PR China;1. College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, PR China;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, SW7 2BU, UK;1. School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China;2. The Appraisal Center for Environment and Engineering, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing, 100012, China;3. School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, 100091, China;4. Atmospheric Environment Institute, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China;5. College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100857, China;1. Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA;2. Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2629, HS, the Netherlands;3. Joint Program for the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA;4. Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA |
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| Abstract: | In this paper we describe the methods used to develop the open source Aviation Emissions Inventory Code and produce a global emissions inventory for scheduled civil aviation, with quantified uncertainty. We estimate that in 2005, scheduled civil aviation was responsible for 180.6 Tg of fuel burn, which agrees to within 4% of other published emissions inventories for 2004 and 2006. By comparing the Aviation Emissions Inventory Code with flight data records, we show that the mean bias in predicted fuel burn at the airport-pair level is +1% for an ensemble of 132 flights, and less than 10% for 5 of the 6 aircraft types used in the validation. |
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| Keywords: | Aircraft emissions Aviation fuel burn Aviation Emissions Inventory Code |
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