汽车碰撞事故再现估算速度的不确定度分析

不确定度分析是一种考察人试验测量输入值得到计算结果输出之间不确定度传播的数学方法。本文中将不确定度分析方法引入汽车碰撞事故再现的模型算法中，推算碰撞前速度的不确定度，给出了在汽车正面斜碰撞事故再现中的一个应用实例。通过对计算结果的分析，初步得到了不确定度的传播规律，并指出了相关问题和发展方向。

The Uncertainty Analysis on the Estimated Velocity in Vehicle Impact Accident Reconstruction

In accident reconstruction, it is important to accurately estimate the pre impact velocity. The uncertainty analysis theory provides mathematical method for detecting the uncertainty propagation from measured values into calculated results. In this paper, the method is used to determine the uncertainty of velocity values calculated by the model and algorithm of accident reconstruction. Then the error of accident reconstruction results can be examined to some extent. The effectiveness of this technique is tested through a typical example of vehicle oblique front crash. According to the analysis on calculated results, the characteristics of uncertainty propagation are concluded and the relevant problem and development prospects of the method are also pointed out.