An aggregate approach to model evacuee behavior for no-notice evacuation operations

This study proposes an aggregate approach to model evacuee behavior in the context of no-notice evacuation operations. It develops aggregate behavior models for evacuation decision and evacuation route choice to support information-based control for the real-time stage-based routing of individuals in the affected areas. The models employ the mixed logit structure to account for the heterogeneity across the evacuees. In addition, due to the subjectivity involved in the perception and interpretation of the ambient situation and the information received, relevant fuzzy logic variables are incorporated within the mixed logit structure to capture these characteristics. Evacuation can entail emergent behavioral processes as the problem is characterized by a potential threat from the extreme event, time pressure, and herding mentality. Simulation experiments are conducted for a hypothetical terror attack to analyze the models’ ability to capture the evacuation-related behavior at an aggregate level. The results illustrate the value of using a mixed logit structure when heterogeneity is pronounced. They further highlight the benefits of incorporating fuzzy logic to enhance the prediction accuracy in the presence of subjective and linguistic elements in the problem.