| 非线性季节型航空公司客运收入的组合预测方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王斐峰,王琨,邓学钧.非线性季节型航空公司客运收入的组合预测方法[J].交通运输工程学报,2005,5(1):66-69. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王斐峰 王琨 邓学钧 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 东南大学,交通学院,江苏,南京,210096;中国东方航空江苏有限公司,江苏,南京,211113 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 针对航空公司的客运收入同时具有增长性趋势和季节波动性特征，使得客运收入的变化呈现出复杂的非线性组合特点，依据灰色预测GM(1，1)模型原理，建立客运收入预测模型，以反映其增长性趋势的特点，建立客运收入季节变动预测模型，以反映其季节波动性特点，最终形成非线性季节型客运收入组合预测模型。航空公司客运收入的预测结果表明，预测值与实际值误差小于1％，该模型有效、可行。
|
| 关 键 词： | 交通管理 客运收入 季节波动性 GM(1 1)模型 组合预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-1637(2005)01-0066-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年10月23 |
Integrated prediction method of nonlinear-seasonal passenger traffic income of airlines |
| |
| WANG Fei-feng,WANG Kun,DENG Xue-jun.Integrated prediction method of nonlinear-seasonal passenger traffic income of airlines[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,2005,5(1):66-69. |
| |
| Authors: | WANG Fei-feng WANG Kun DENG Xue-jun |
| |
| Institution: | WANG Fei-feng~1,WANG Kun~2,DENG Xue-jun~1 |
| |
| Abstract: | Passenger traffic income of airlines has a dual trend of growth and seasonal fluctuation, which makes the income demonstrate a complicated nonlinear characteristic. A prediction model, based on the theory of grey prediction model GM(1,1), was introduced to reflect the characteristic of its growth trend, a seasonal change prediction model was employed to reflect the characteristic of its seasonal fluctuation, an integrated nonlinear-seasonal prediction model of passenger traffic income of airlines was proposed. Prediction results show that the error rate of actual value and test value is less than 1%, the model is feasible. 5 tabs, 1 fig, 9 refs. |
| |
| Keywords: | transportation management passenger traffic income seasonal fluctuation GM(1 1) model integrated prediction model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
