| 公路货运价格预测的马尔科夫模型分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张芳,方磊.公路货运价格预测的马尔科夫模型分析[J].交通科技与经济,2009,11(4):15-17. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张芳 方磊 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 长安大学,经济与管理学院,陕西,西安,710061 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 在分析货运价格的波动特征的基础上，认证运价指数符合马尔柯夫过程的条件。利用二状态一阶马尔柯夫过程对2007年1月～2008年6月全国公路货运价格指数的变动进行刻画，利用马尔柯夫链预测对2008年7月～10月的指数进行区间预测，其实际值基本落入预测区间。从而检验了马尔柯夫链预测方法的可靠性。研究结果可以为科学制定运输规划提供良好的参考和借鉴。
|
| 关 键 词： | 马尔柯夫过程 转移概率 持续期 全国公路货运价格指数 马尔柯夫预测 |
Highway Freight Price Forecasting Research Markov Model |
| |
| ZHANG Fang,FANG Lei.Highway Freight Price Forecasting Research Markov Model[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2009,11(4):15-17. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Fang FANG Lei |
| |
| Institution: | Chang'an University;Economy and Management College;Xi'an 710061;China |
| |
| Abstract: | In the analysis of the characteristics of the freight prices fluctuations on the basis that the price index in line with the Markov process. In this paper,two state-of-order Markov process from January 2007 to June 2008 of the national highway freight price index for changes in characterization,the use of Markov chain forecast in July 2008 to October index of the range forecast,the actual value of the basic fall into the range of forecasts. Markov chain in order to test the reliability of the forecasting me... |
| |
| Keywords: | Markov process transition probability duration the national highway freight price index Markov forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
