基于多米诺效应的危险货物运输风险分析

根据危险货物运输事故易发生次生事故的特点,提出了针对危险货物运输事故运用多米诺效应理论进行定量风险分析的方法.首先分析导致货物运输事故的初始事件和可能出现的次生事故,计算它们间的耦合度,确定是否构成多米诺效应场景.然后,运用概率函数的方法确定触发概率,用人体脆弱性模型对事件链场景后果进行量化分析.最后,针对危险货物运输...

Risk Analysis of Dangerous Goods Transportation Based on Domino Effect

A quantitative risk analysis method based on domino effect,coping with the secondary accident in dangerous goods transportation,was proposed.First,the initial event that could cause accident in dangerous goods transportation and the possible secondary accident were analyzed.Then,the couplings among events were calculated to determine whether they constituted a domino effect scene.Second,the trigger possibility was calculated with the probability function,and the human body vulnerability model was used to qu...