| 广州港货物吞吐量和引航船舶总数预测--基于协整检验与 ARMA 模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐强荣,陈丹涌,吴建生.广州港货物吞吐量和引航船舶总数预测--基于协整检验与 ARMA 模型[J].广州航海高等专科学校学报,2013(2):9-12,16. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐强荣 陈丹涌 吴建生 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]广州航海学院航运系,广东广州510725 [2]广东海事局巡查执法支队,广东广州510230 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用广州港货物吞吐量和引航船舶总数的历史统计数据，基于时间序列计量分析技术构建和选择ARMA预测模型，对2010—2020年广州港货物吞吐量和引航船舶总数进行预测，探索广州港未来货物吞吐量和引航船舶总数发展变化的规律与特征。
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| 关 键 词： | 广州港 货物吞吐量 引航船舶总数 |
Forecasting Cargo Throughput and Number of Piloted Vessels of Guangzhou Port---Based on Co-integration Test and ARMA Model |
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| Institution: | TANG Qlang-rong ,CHENG Dan-yong,WU Jlang-sheng( 1. School of Navigation, Guangzhou Maritime Institute, Guangzhou, 510725 ; 2. Patrol and Law Enforcement Detachment, Guangdong Maritime Administration, Guangzhou, 510230) |
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| Abstract: | Based on theories of Time Series and ARMA models, this paper create an effective method to forecast the cargo throughput and the number of piloted vessels of Guangzhou port for years among 2010 - 2020 in use of the historical data, and explores the characteristics and laws of the development of Guangzhou port in the coming years. |
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| Keywords: | Guangzhou port cargo throughput number of piloted vessels |
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