多部门协同的内河失控船应急处置决策方法

提出了一种基于模糊推理和决策偏好的群决策方法，以实现内河失控船的安全和有效的应急处置.首先，通过历史统计数据和文献综述，获取了不同影响因素下的失控船应急处置方案，确定了处置方案的决策准则；其次，利用模糊推理的方法对影响因素进行了模糊化，建立了模糊推理规则库和模糊推理机，通过去模糊化获取了不同决策方案下的决策准则值；再次，考虑到多部门协同的决策者的不同偏好信息格式，本文提出了一种基于一致性分析的线性规划模型，用于整合区间效用值、直觉模糊数和区间乘法偏好关系等决策偏好格式，从而获取不同决策准则的权重并得到最优决策方案.最后，应用典型案例进行了验证.结果表明，该方法能够很好地实现内河失控船的应急处置.

A Modified Decision-making Method with Multidivisional Cooperation for Disposal of NUC Ships

In order to dispose the not under command (NUC) ships effectively and safely in inland waterway transportation, a modified group decision making methodology is proposed based on fuzzy rule reasoning and decision preference. First, according to the statistical data and literature review, the influencing factors of emergency disposal options is obtained, and the decision attribute is also defined. Second, the fuzzy reasoning is introduced to integrate the influencing factors; moreover, after establishment of the fuzzy rule base and fuzzy inference engine, the linguistic variables of decision criteria with respect to the alternatives are defuzzified into crisp values. Third, considering the decision-maker may prefer different formats of information, a consistency-based linear programming method is proposed to integrate the information, including interval utility value, intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and interval multiplicative preference relation. The weights of attributes and the best alternative, then, can be obtained. Finally, a typical illustrative example is used to verify the proposed approach, and the result represents that this model is useful and beneficial for disposal of NUC ships.