基于云理论的路网可靠性评估方法

以科学评估路网可靠性为目标，认为该问题涉及到对路网可靠性的认知和表达两个方面。视路网可靠性为模糊性与随机性的统一，从而发现其理论基础同云理论有着内在联系，进而采用云理论研究路网整体可靠性的评估。根据路网综合失效的严重程度，将路网可靠性划分为6个等级，将影响可靠性的因素划分为5大类别，并采用路网综合性能模型对5个类别的影响因素进行衡量、对路网可靠性所属等级进行评判。鉴于人脑的思维是对路网可靠性认知与表达的主体，而自然语言是思维的载体，故以语言值来表示可靠性的定性概念与其定量数值之间的不确定性转换，并通过应用分析描述了该方法的应用过程。

Road Network Reliability Evaluation Method Based on Cloud Theory

Taking scientifically evaluation of road network reliability(RNR) as the object,it was argued that this problem related to cognition and expression of RNR.RNR was considered as a unification of fuzzy and random meaning in uncertain environment.Furthermore,intrinsic relationship between the theoretical foundation of the RNR concept and the cloud theory was discovered,and cloud theory was applied to study the evaluation of RNR by a holistic perspective accordingly.According to comprehensive invalidation degree of road network,RNR was divided into six grades and the influencing factors of RNR were classified into five sorts.Comprehensive performance model was developed to measure the five sorts of influencing factors and to evaluate which class that certain RNR belongs to.Considering the cognition and expression of RNR were borne by human thinking and natural language was the carrier of human thinking,therefore,linguistic terms were adopted to express the uncertain transformation between qualitative concepts and their corresponding quantitative numerical values.This method was further explained by application analysis.