城市轨道交通与地面常规公交换乘客流预测模型研究

轨道交通与地面常规公交共同支撑着城市公共交通系统.一个城市轨道交通系统效率的发挥,有待于作为集散客流重要交通方式的常规公交的配合,科学地分析与预测轨道交通与常规公交之间的换乘客流量,可以为确定交通枢纽建设的合理规模、各种交通工具在枢纽中的布局分布等提供依据.本文在总结各种客流预测模型的基础上,针对城市的不同情形给出了不同的换乘客流预测模型.

Study of Forecast Modeling for Transit Passenger Flow between Urban Rail Transport and Conventional Public Transit

Urban rail transport and surface public transit are two main parts of urban public transport system. The efficiency of an urban rail transport system relies on the cooperation of conventional public transit, an important transportation mode to aggregate and disperse passenger flows. Scientifically analyzing the transit passenger flow can provide basis to determine the rational scale of a traffic hub and its distribution of various transport modes. This paper summarizes a number of passenger flow forecast models, and then proposes different transit passenger flow forecast models aiming at different situations.