Multivariate modeling of pedestrian fatality risk through on the spot accident investigation |
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Authors: | A Badea A Furones F J Páez C González |
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Institution: | (1) Dept of Orthopedic and Trauma Surgery, Unfallkrankenhaus Berlin, Warener Strasse 7, 12683 Berlin, Germany;(2) Dept of Orthopedic and Trauma Surgery, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, 17475 Sauerbruchstrasse, Greifswald, Germany |
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Abstract: | Pedestrians are the most vulnerable users of public roads and represent one of the largest groups of road casualties; their
death rate around the world due to vehicle-pedestrian collisions is high and tending to rise. In Spain, as in other countries
of the European Union, steps have been taken to reduce the number and consequences of such accidents, with encouraging results
in recent years. A key to countering this concern is the accident research activity that has obtained remarkable achievements
in different fields, especially when multidisciplinary approaches are taken. This paper describes the development of a multivariate
model that is able to detect the most influential parameters on the consequences of vehicle-pedestrian collision and to quantify
their impact on pedestrian fatality risk. First, an accident database containing detailed information and parameters of vehicle-pedestrian
collisions in Madrid has been developed. The accidents were investigated on the spot by INSIA accident investigation teams
and analyzed using advanced reconstruction techniques. The model was then developed with two components: (1) a classification
tree that characterizes and selects the explanatory variables, identifying their interactions, and (2) a binary logistic regression
to quantify the influence of each variable and interaction resulting from the classification tree. The whole model represents
an important tool for identifying, quantifying and predicting the potential impact of measures aimed at reducing injuries
in vehicle-pedestrian collisions. |
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