灰色预测的拓扑选择在运量预测中的运用

运用灰色系统理论及GM模型拓朴选择,建立了相应的GM(1,1)模型,运用于运量预测,并以港口吞吐量与货物周转量的预测为例进行校验。结果表明,新息GM(1,1)模型,新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型与原始模型(全数据GM(1,1)模型)三者比较,新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的精度最高,值得推荐在运量预测中采用。

The Application of Topological Selection of Grey Prediction in Traffic Volume Prediction

Applying the grey system theory and topological selection with GM model, the corresponding GM(1.1) model applied in traffic volume prediction has been set up. Taking the prediction of port's throughput and tunnover volume of freight traffic as examples, the results indicated that the precision of the metabolism GM(1. 1)model was highest among three models (information GM(1.1) model, metabolism GM(1.1) model and primary full data GM(1.1) model). This model is recommended to be adopted in the prediction of traffic volume.