基于多智能体建模和蒙特卡洛仿真的跑道容量评估

分析了飞机编队动力学特性以及机场组织模式、管制方式和飞行方式等特征，建立了跑道容量计算模型和跑道运行模型；以中距平行双跑道半混合运行模式和混合运行模式作为典型场景，综合运用多智能体建模和蒙特卡洛仿真方法，计算了不同运行模式下跑道容量；设计正交仿真试验，研究了跑道容量与运行模式、起降比例、出动间隔、机型比例、编队数量和环境因素的关系。仿真结果表明：相比于半混合运行模式，混合运行模式的起飞容量平均增加了55.2%，着陆容量平均减小了6.2%，总容量平均增加了28.5%；随着出动间隔从60 s增加到180 s，半混合运行模式的总容量减小了27.2%，混合运行模式的总容量减小了24.9%；随着机型比例从0增加到1.0，半混合运行模式的总容量减小了29.7%，混合运行模式的总容量减小了29.2%；随着平均编队数量从1.9增加到3.2，半混合运行模式下的总容量增加了9.8%，混合运行模式的总容量增加了7.1%。可见，混合运行模式的性能整体优于半混合运行模式，跑道容量与任务出动方式密切相关，需要根据任务出动方式合理选择跑道运行模式。

Runway capacity evaluation based on multi-agent modeling and Monte Carlo simulation

The dynamic characteristics of aircraft formation and the characteristics of airport organization mode, control mode, and flight mode were analyzed, and the runway capacity calculation model and runway operation model were established. With semi-hybrid and hybrid operation modes for intermediate-distance parallel dual runway as typical scenarios, the runway capacities under different operation modes were calculated by comprehensively using multi-agent modeling and Monte Carlo simulation. An orthogonal simulation test was designed to investigate the relationship between runway capacity and various factors including operation mode, takeoff and landing ratio, departure interval, aircraft type ratio, formation number, and environmental conditions. Simulation results indicate that compared with the semi-hybrid operation mode, the hybrid operation mode increases takeoff capacity by an average of 55.2%, decreases landing capacity by 6.2%, and enhances overall capacity by 28.5%. As the departure interval increases from 60 s to 180 s, the total capacity of the semi-hybrid operation mode decreases by 27.2%, and the hybrid operation mode decreases by 24.9%. As the aircraft type ratio increases from 0 to 1.0, the total capacity of the semi-hybrid operation mode decreases by 29.7%, and the hybrid operation mode decreases by 29.2%. As the average formation number rises from 1.9 to 3.2, the total capacity of the semi-hybrid operation mode increases by 9.8%, and the hybrid operation mode increases by 7.1%. Therefore, the performance of the hybrid operation mode is better than the semi-hybrid operation mode, the runway capacity is closely related to the task dispatch mode, and the runway operation mode needs to be reasonably selected according to the task dispatch mode.