| 舰用锅炉炉膛安全性定量分析方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 范永涛, 杨自春. 舰用锅炉炉膛安全性定量分析方法研究[J]. 中国舰船研究, 2008, 3(4): 33-35,49. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3185.2008.04.008 |
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| 作者姓名： | 范永涛 杨自春 |
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| 作者单位： | 海军工程大学船舶与动力学院,湖北武汉430033 |
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| 摘 要： | 将基于Bayes方法的Monte-carlo数字仿真运用于故障树分析法中，形成得到底事件故障概率的新方法。克服实际安全事故数据较少给定量分析带来的困难，解决数据来源问题，最后用该方法对某型舰增压锅炉安全性进行分析，得出定量的评价结果并提出建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 炉膛 安全性定量分析 Monte-Carlo仿真 故障树分析法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-05-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-06-16 |
A Quantitative Analysis Method for the Safety of Hearth on Board |
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| Fan Yongtao, Yang Zichun. A Quantitative Analysis Method for the Safety of Hearth on Board[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research, 2008, 3(4): 33-35,49. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3185.2008.04.008 |
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| Authors: | Fan Yong-tao Yang Zi-chun |
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| Affiliation: | College of Naval Architecture and Power, Naval Univ. of Engineering , Wuhan 430033, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper applied the Monte-carlo simulation,based on the Bayes method,to the FTA.Then a new method to obtain the data of the failure probability of a bottom event was proposed.It overcame the difficult in the quantitative analysis due to the insufficient data of event regarding the safety and therefore,solved the problem with less data resources.Finally,this new method was used to the safety analysis for a hearth on board,and some quantitative results were obtained together with some advices. |
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| Keywords: | hearth quantitative safety analysis Monte-carlo simulation FTA |
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