Modeling activity scheduling time horizon: Duration of time between planning and execution of pre-planned activities |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 842 West Taylor Street, Chicago, IL 60607-7023, United States;2. Department of Geography & Environmental Studies, Wilfrid Laurier University, 75 University Avenue, West Waterloo, Ont., Canada N2L 3C5;1. School of Software Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China;2. Department of Electronics and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1037 Luoyu Road, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China;1. School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China;2. The Key Lab of the Ministry of Education for Process Control & Efficiency Engineering, Xi’an 710049, China;1. Institute of Information Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing Key Laboratory of Advanced Information Science and Network Technology, Beijing 100044, China;2. School of Software Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China;3. Safety Equipment Research Institute, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing 100013, China |
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| Abstract: | Growing recognition that observed travel patterns are the result of an underlying activity scheduling process has resulted in a new stream of data collection and modeling efforts. Of particular focus is the planning or sequencing of activity scheduling decisions over time that precede actual execution of activities/trips. Understanding and potentially modeling these sequences offers particular promise, as strong interdependencies in activity/travel choices likely exist. In practice, however, a fixed order of sequencing by activity type is often assumed that overlooks the strong interdependencies in activity/travel choices and can be misleading. This study presents the process of developing parametric and non-parametric hazard models to predict the duration of time between planning and execution of pre-planned activities based on attributes of activity and characteristics of decision maker. Modeling results suggest that activity type alone may not suffice to fully explain how activities are planned. Rather, the nature of the activity and several overriding personal and situational factors play an important role. This will make the model more amenable to a variety of people and situations and will make it more sensitive to emerging policy action scenarios. |
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