| 基于活动链的出行需求预测方法综述 |
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| 引用本文： | 隽志才,李志瑶,宗芳. 基于活动链的出行需求预测方法综述[J]. 公路交通科技, 2005, 22(6): 108-113 |
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| 作者姓名： | 隽志才 李志瑶 宗芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海交通大学交通运输研究所,上海,200052
2. 吉林大学交通学院,吉林,长春,130025 |
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| 基金项目： | 高等学校博士学科点基金资助项目(20030183008) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于活动链出行预测理论主要研究人们对社会经济活动(以下简称活动)和出行行为的决策特性。介绍此理论的发展过程,给出6个重要的模型系统,并简要评价各个模型的优缺点。然后简单介绍1994年由Ben Akiva提出的基于活动链出行需求模型,进一步说明系统的框架和预测过程。通过对基于活动链理论发展过程和实际模型应用效果的分析,给出目前模型系统存在的缺点和问题,探索改进出行需求预测方法的途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 活动链 出行需求 往返行程 计量经济学模型 非集计模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0268(2005)06-0108-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-04-05 |
A Review of Activity-based Travel Demand Forecasting Method |
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| JUAN Zhi-cai,LI Zhi-yao,ZONG Fang. A Review of Activity-based Travel Demand Forecasting Method[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2005, 22(6): 108-113 |
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| Authors: | JUAN Zhi-cai LI Zhi-yao ZONG Fang |
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| Abstract: | The activitybased travel demand forecasting theories mainly study people's decision characters in social economy activity and travel behavior.This paper presents the developing process of the theory and six important model systems,as well as their key features.Then based on the introduction to an activitybased travel demand model proposed by BenAkiva in 1994,more explanation of the frame and forecasting process of the system are presented.Through the analysis of the development and the effects of the activitybased theory,the weakpoints of the current systems are discussed,as well as the improvement measures for the travel demand forecasting method. |
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| Keywords: | Activity Travel demand Tour Econometric Disaggregate model |
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