Numerical simulations of seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea thermohaline circulation

The Black Sea general circulation is simulated by a primitive equation model with active free surface. The forcing is seasonally variable and is based on available climatic data. The model reproduces the main features of the Black Sea circulation, including the river discharge effects on the mean sea level and the Bosphorus outflow. Model results show that the simulated sea surface elevation increases in spring over the whole sea, reaching a maximum in the Danube delta area. In the same region, a minimum is observed in winter. The amplitude of the seasonal oscillations (about 8–12 cm over the whole basin) is of the same order of magnitude as the maximum horizontal variations (about 15–18 cm between the coastal areas and the basin interior). This strong signal formed mostly by river discharges, along with the seasonal variability in the other forcing functions and the local dynamics creates a well-pronounced interannual variability. The performance of the model in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability is critically analyzed, with a special attention on the cold intermediate water formation and the circulation in the upper 150 m. The simulations demonstrate that the source of intermediate waters is on the shelf, and that the water mass in the core of cold intermediate layer changes with time as a response to the periodic forcing at sea surface. This type of variability is characterized by pronounced interannual changes, proving that important differences could exist between water mass structure in different years, even when using identical atmospheric forcings each year.