A box model approach for a long-term assessment of estuarine eutrophication, Szczecin Lagoon, southern Baltic

We develop a layered “box model” to evaluate the major effects of estuarine eutrophication of the Szczecin lagoon which can be compared with integrating measures (chlorophyll a (Chl a), sediment burial, sediment oxygen consumption (SOC), input and output of total nutrient loads) and use it to hindcast the period 1950–1996 (the years when major increase in nutrient discharges by the Oder River took place). The following state variables are used to describe the cycling of the limiting nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus): phytoplankton (Phy), labile and refractory detritus (D_N, D_Nref, D_P, D_Pref), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), and oxygen (O₂). The three layers of the model include two water layers and one sediment layer. Decrease of the carrying capacity with respect to the increased supply of organic matter of the system with advancing eutrophication over the period studied is parameterized by an exponential decrease of the sediment nitrogen fluxes with increasing burial, simulating changing properties from moderate to high accumulating sediments. The seasonal variation as well as the order of magnitude of nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton stocks in the water column remains in agreement with recent observations. Calculated annual mean values of nutrient burial of 193 mmol N m⁻² a⁻¹ and 23 mmol P m⁻² a⁻¹ are supported by observed values from geological sediment records. Estimated DIN remineralization in the sediments between 100 and 550 mmol N m⁻² a⁻¹ corresponds to SOC measurements. Simulated DIP release up to 60 mmol P m⁻² a⁻¹ corresponds to recent measurements. The conceptual framework presented here can be used for a sequential box model approach connecting small estuaries like the Szczecin lagoon and the open sea, and might also be connected with river box models.