房地产市场风险分析方法研究

随着我国市场经济的逐步完善,房地产业逐步成为国民经济的一大支柱。因此,研究房地产投资风险对我国房地产投资的有序发展具有十分重要的意义。文章介绍了利用贝叶斯(Bayes)概率理论、蒙特卡洛模拟及投影寻踪模型的三种风险分析方法。三种方法各有特点,房地产投资者可针对不同类型及严重性各不相同的风险,寻找和确定相应的风险分析办法,拟定决策方案。

Real estate market risk analysis method research

Along with our country market economy gradually consummation, the real estate industry becomes the national economy gradually a big prop. Therefore, the research real estate investment risk has the extremely vital significance to our country real estate investment order development. The article introduced using Baye the (Bayes) probability theory, Monte-Carlo simulates and the projection seeks out the traces the model three risk analysis method. Three methods have the characteristic respectively, the real estate investor may aim at the different type and the grave various risk, seeks and determined the corresponding risk analysis means, draw up the policy-making plan.