基于船舶行为的武汉长江大桥水域货船通航规律研究

内河桥区是水上交通事故的多发水域,为保障船舶通航安全、预防和减少事故的发生,从船舶行为的角度来对船舶自动识别系统(AIS)数据开展研究,以航速和航向角作为船舶行为特征来分析上下行和水期因素对其的影响.通过对各影响因素条件下的特征数据分别采用正态分布和对数正态分布拟合,发现后者能更准确描述航行规律;同时以航速、航向角区间散点比例的统计结果来量化各因素的影响.研究表明,货船航速在下行时受枯水期影响相对明显,航速整体倾向于向较高航速区间7,9]kn转移;货船航向角在上下行时受洪水期影响较大,其中货船上行时航向角具有增大的趋势,而下行时具有相反的趋势. 

A Study of Regularity of Navigation Patterns of Cargo Ships at the Waterways near Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge based on Ship Maneuvering Behavior

In order to enhance navigation safety,prevent and reduce maritime accidents in the bridge waterway, where is a frequently-occurring accidents area,AIS(Automatic Identification System)data are collected and analyzed from the perspective of ship behavior.Two typical indexes(i.e.course and speed)in upstream/downstream and different river seasons are analyzed to discover their impact on ship behavior.After comparing the results of normal and lognormal distributions fitting in different patterns using AIS data,the latter distribution is discovered to fit better than the former one.Moreover,the influences on ship behavior are quantified by using interval numbers of ship speed and course.The re-sults show that ship speed is influenced a lot by the dry season with a relatively high speed(i.e.7,9]kn).Moreover, ship course is greatly influenced by the flooding season,specifically,the heading has an increasing trend when ships navi-gate from downstream to upstream,while the trend is decreasing from upstream to downstream.