Freight transportation demand: A survey of recent econometric studies

This paper surveys econometric studies of freight transportation demand which have been published since the mid-1970s. It describes the variables, data sources, and estimation procedures utilized by the studies. In addition, it summarizes their statistical results. The studies included in this survey typically accounted for freight rates and service characteristics (e.g., transit time and reliability). Data sources often varied across the studies.Based on the data they utilized, the surveyed studies are classified as either aggregate or disaggregate. The data in the aggregate studies consist of information on total flows by modes at the regional or national level, while the data in the disaggregate studies pertain to individual shipments. The earlier aggregate studies estimated linear logit models. It has been pointed out that when they are estimated on aggregate data these models are subject to certain shortcomings. To avoid these shortcomings, more recent aggregate studies have estimated flexible forms such as translog functions. The disaggregate studies surveyed in this paper used either logit or probit models.Statistical results often varied with the commodities analyzed, making it somewhat difficult to generalize the findings of the different studies. One finding common to several studies is that freight rates have a significant impact on shipment decisions. This paper discusses certain theoretical and empirical limitations of the surveyed studies. It also offers suggestions for future research in freight transport demand. Freight demand models can be used to examine various effects of the recent deregulation in freight transportation.