基于层次分析和灰色聚类法的老龄导管架平台安全评估

为延长老龄导管架式海洋平台的使用寿命,对其进行安全评估具有重要意义.文章以渤海湾的一个老龄导管架平台为分析对象,建立了包含多重风险因素的安全评价指标体系,该体系包括三个层次:目标层,一级指标层,二级指标层.目标层包含3个一级指标:海洋环境,结构状态和人为因素.每个一级指标又分为3个二级指标.每个指标的权重通过层次分析法来计算以消除主观因素的影响.采用灰色聚类法定性和定量地评估导管架平台的失效风险.将风险评估标准分为5个等级,确定对应5个灰类的白化权函数.每个二级指标的灰色权向量由表上作业法计算得到.通过逐级计算,目标层的灰色评价值最终由灰色评价权向量单值化计算,灰色等级通过极大值原理确定.评价结果显示该老龄导管架平台失效风险等级是中等的.文中提出的安全评估方法是合理可行的.

Safety Assessment of An Aging Offshore Jacket Platform by Integrating Analytic Hierarchy Process and Grey Clustering Method

It is a significant task to assess the safety of the aging offshore jacket platform in order to extend the service life. This paper analyzes the multiple risk factors of an aging jacket platform in Bo-hai Bay, China and builds the safety evaluation index system, which includes three levels, namely, the target layer, the first-grade indicators layer and the second-grade indicators layer. The target lay-er consists of three first-grade indicators: ocean environments, structure status, and human and or-ganizational factors. Each first-grade indicator is divided into three second-grade indicators. The weight of each indicator is calculated by analytic hierarchy process method to weaken subjective effect. Grey clustering method is applied to estimate the failure risk of the platform in Bohai Bay qualitatively and quantitatively. The assessment standard is divided into five grades and the whiten-ing function of each grey cluster is determined by the assessment scheme. The grey evaluation weight vector of each second-grade indicator is calculated by the table dispatching method. Through layer by layer calculation, the grey assessment value of the target layer is finally estimated by making the grey assessment weight vector single-value and the grey grade is determined according to the maxi-mum principle. The evaluation results show quantitatively that the failure risk grade of the jacket platform in Bohai Bay is medium and the safety assessment method is reasonable and feasible.