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Estimation of urban bus transit marginal cost without cost data
Institution:1. Center for Geospatial Sciences, School of Public Policy, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, USA;2. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA;3. School of Computing, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA;4. Toulan School of Urban Studies & Planning, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207, USA;5. Department of Human Geography, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, ON M1C 1A4, Canada
Abstract:We develop a method to study the industrial structure of urban bus transit without using cost data. To do so, we estimate the marginal cost function under the assumption that firms compete on frequency and adjust frequency to maximize profits. Our methodology is applied to Santiago, Chile. In this case, demand is modeled with a simplified model of transit network assignment. The goal is to consider how frequency, capacity, and on-board passengers affect the bus line’s demand. The marginal cost function is estimated by using the first-order conditions of the firm’s profit maximization problem, using the results of the demand model as data. We conclude that the urban bus transit industry in Santiago exhibits increasing returns to scale for low levels of demand and that these returns are exhausted rapidly at a moderate demand level. Additionally, firms exhibit economies of network expansion, on average.
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