| 哈大客运专线长大段趋势客运量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 荣文竽,梁立,王洪亮.哈大客运专线长大段趋势客运量预测[J].大连铁道学院学报,2011(1):22-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 荣文竽 梁立 王洪亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连交通大学交通运输工程学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 为了确定车站等级,配置设施,布置列车运行图.趋势预测是客运专线的运量预测的重要组成部分,也是其它预测阶段的基础.本文选择灰色预测法,根据2003-2008年的客运量数据建立灰色预测模型,通过预测可知长大段主要车站的趋势运量呈显著性增长.建议加大主要车站基础设施建设,完善服务体系,以满足客运量的快速增长.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测法 哈大线长大段 趋势预测 |
Passenger Trend Forecast of Haerbin-Dalian PDL on Changchun-Dalian Section |
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| RONG Wen-yu,LIANG Li,WANG Hong-liang.Passenger Trend Forecast of Haerbin-Dalian PDL on Changchun-Dalian Section[J].Journal of Dalian Railway Institute,2011(1):22-25. |
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| Authors: | RONG Wen-yu LIANG Li WANG Hong-liang |
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| Institution: | RONG Wen-yu,LIANG Li,WANG Hong-liang(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028,China) |
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| Abstract: | To fix the facility and to the guarantee for operational plan,passenger trend forecast of Haerbin-Dalian PDL on Changchun-Dalian section is conducted by using grey prediction method based on passenger volume data from 2003 to 2008,and the result shows a significantly increase.A proposal is put forward that the infrastructur in main stations should be inceased and the service system should be improved. |
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| Keywords: | grey prediction method Haerbin-Dalian PDL Changchun-Dalian section trend forecast |
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